In this thesis, we propose a new manner of targeting economies—a holistic approach that accounts for the linkages between infrastructure elements and their resultant synergies. We first establish a theoretical foundation for targeting based on complexity science. This discipline examines the nature of complex, interconnected systems such as economies. Next, we demonstrate that economies are indeed highly interconnected systems. These linkages cannot be ignored in the targeting process. Finally, we tentatively propose a computer algorithm capable of targeting multiple, interacting infrastructure elements. The technique employs a genetic algorithm coupled to standard industrial analysis programs. When implemented, this computer technique should dramatically improve the effectiveness of economic targeting....

1 LOOKING BEYOND THE WEB . . . . . 1 Objectives and Scope . . . . . 2 A Convergence of Technologies . . . . 3 Thesis Organization . . . . . 4 Notes . . . . . 5 2 COMPLEXITY THEORY AND ECONOMIC TARGETING . . . . 7 Complex Systems Defined . . . . 7 Characteristics of Complex Systems . . . . . 10 Summary . . . . . 18 Notes . . . . . 19 3 SYNERGIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE ELEMENTS . . . . 25 Targeting Issues . . . . . 25 Dissecting an Economy . . . . 27 Summary . . . . . 31 Notes . . . . . 32 4 MODELING AND SIMULATION TECHNIQUES . . . . 35 Targeting Philosophies . . . . 36 Numerical Techniques . . . . 39 Targeting Economic Sectors—A Proposed Numerical Simulation . . . . . 49 Philosophical Aspects of Computer-based Targeting . . . . 57 Summary . . . . . 58 Notes . . . . . 58 5 SYNERGY TABLES . . . . 65 Notes . . . . . 71 6 CONCLUSIONS . . . . . 73 Recommendations . . . . 74 Final Remarks . . . . 74 Notes . . . . . 75...

The Air Force doctrinally advocates centralized command and control (C2) with decentralized execution as the best means to concentrate force on any facet of an enemy’s power. Although there are historical examples of effective command and control that have been less centralized, the USAF views decentralization as the cause of inefficient and suboptimal use of airpower....

1 INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 Notes . . .10 2 A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK FOR COMMAND, CONTROL, AND COMPLEXITY . . . . . .13 Notes . . .29 3 DESCRIBING CENTRALIZED COMMAND AND CONTROL WITH THE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK . . .35 Notes . . .51 4 APPLYING COMPLEXITY THEORY TO DECENTRALIZE AIRPOWER COMMAND AND CONTROL . . . .55 Notes . . .88 5 ADAPTIVE COMMAND AND CONTROL . . . .93 Notes . . .100 6 CONCLUSION—A CULTURAL SHIFT . . . .103 Notes . . .108...

This study analyzes the evolution of targeting organizations to identify their strengths and evaluate their impact on future organizations. While both strategic and tactical targeting are discussed, the primary emphasis is on the former. This study analyzes the evolution of targeting organizations to identify their strengths and evaluate their impact on future organizations. While both strategic and tactical targeting are discussed, the primary emphasis is on the former....

1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . 1 2 CENTRALIZATION OR DECENTRALIZATION? . . . . 3 3 TARGETING AND ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE . . . . 9 4 THE EVOLUTION OF TARGETING . . . . 17 5 FINDINGS, OBSERVATIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS . . . 37...

Technology Horizons is our vision for key Air Force science and technology investments over the next decade that will provide us with truly game-changing capabilities to meet our strategic and joint force responsibilities. The coming decades hold high promise for amazing new capabilities across the air, space, and cyber domains. Yet the Air Force and our nation will also be confronted with substantial strategic, technology, and budget challenges. Our greatest advances will come with a focused investment of resources in the most promising technologies. The vision in Technology Horizons provides the shared awareness of the challenges and opportunities that will enable us to achieve this focus....

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS . . . . . vii FOREWORD BY THE SECRETARY OF THE AIR FORCE AND CHIEF OF STAFF OF THE AIR FORCE . . . . ix PREFACE BY THE CHIEF SCIENTIST OF THE AIR FORCE . . . . xi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . xv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . xvii 1 INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 A Vision for Air Force Science and Technology 2010–30 . . . . 1 Lessons Learned from Prior Air Force Science and Technology Visions . . . . 5 Organization and Conduct of Technology Horizons . . . . . 8 Organization of Results from Technology Horizons . . . . . 14 Caveats . . . . 16 2 STRATEGIC CONTEXT FOR AIR FORCE S&T 2010–30 . . . . . 19 Relation to National Security Objectives . . . . . 21 Technology-Derived Challenges to Air Force Capabilities . . . . . 22 Strategic Implications of S&T Globalization . . . . 38 Federal Budget Implications for Air Force S&T Strategy . . . . . 41 3 ENDURING REALITIES FOR THE AIR FORCE 2010–30 . . . . . 43 Ensuring Interoperability with Legacy Systems . . . . 43 Sustainment Costs for Legacy Systems . . . . . 43 Importance of Low-Observable Systems . . . . 44 Energy Costs and Availability . . . . . 44 Growing Role ...

This thesis evaluates the near-term military utility of virtual reality (VR) and its component technologies to the battle management of an air campaign. It presumes a large-scale air campaign on the order to that in the Gulf War where air operations were continuous, prolonged, and intense. The research concludes by assessing the viability and implication of a military decision to invest in a VR-enhanced air battle management system. Recommendations are given for areas in need of further research and development....

Sustained Coercive Air Presence (SCAP) is an airpower approach to peace enforcement designed to impose a cease-fire on an unwilling belligerent and then use a prolonged air presence to enhance long-term diplomatic efforts that seek a political solution. The competing agendas and political infighting associated with United Nations and coalition operations also seriously hinders a SCAP strategy. Nonetheless, if politicians decide on an airpower approach to peace enforcement, SCAP in concert with the economic, informational, and political instruments of power is a viable strategy against a modern, well-armed foe....

1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . 1 2 THEORETICAL FOUNDATION OF SUSTAINED COERCIVE AIR PRESENCE . . . . . 7 3 OPERATION PROVIDE COMFORT . . . . 19 4 COERCIVE AIRPOWER OVER BOSNIA–HERZEGOVINA . . . . 39 5 CONCLUSION . . . . 59...

This paper explores the utility of a debriefing method resulting in individual, unit, and organizational transcendence toward increased effectiveness in the Royal Norwegian Air Force (RNoAF). The conceptual framework is centered on the transformational and complexity theories of leadership science. The study offers for consideration a debriefing methodology termed “holistic” as a structure for achieving both individualistic and unit inner growth and efficiency. The problem examined is the lack of proper leadership tools in the RNoAF’s operational units to understand and cope with the effects of increased stress. Based on theory and examples from operational practice, holistic debriefing is presented as a possible means for leaders to increase mission effectiveness through improved stress coping mechanisms. The secondary effects from people engaging with themselves and each other through holistic debriefing are increased self-knowledge, interpersonal trust, group confidence, and an improved working environment....

From this basic research and meetings with Chinese experts both in the United States and in China, the team began to explore the various directions China might take in the future. This exploration is not a forecast of a specific future, but rather is designed to help the reader better understand the magnitude and shape of a rapidly rising Asian power. This power may be our friend or foe. Whatever it does become, the nation must be ready to engage it as a fellow member of the international system....

1 INTRODUCTION . . . .1 Col John P. Geis II, PhD 2. THE INFLUENCE OF CULTURE, DEMOGRAPHICS, AND EDUCATION ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MIDDLE KINGDOM . . . .7 Lt Col Scott E. Caine 3. 正义与和谐社会 (HARMONIOUS SOCIETY: RISE OF THE NEW BOXERS) . . . 29 Col Blaine D. Holt Col John P. Geis II, PhD 4. THE PEACEFUL DEVELOPMENT ROAD: CHINA’S ECONOMIC PROGRAM . . . . 47 Col Edwin F. Donaldson 5. CHINA’S MILITARY MODERNIZATION . . .71 Lt Col Ralph A. Sandfry, PhD 6. HARMONIOUS DISCORDANCE: CHINA IN 2030 . . . . . 93 Col John P. Geis II, PhD 7. CONCLUSION: US CAPABILITIES NEEDED TO RESPOND TO POTENTIAL CHINESE CHALLENGES . . . . 109 ABBREVIATIONS . . . 123...

In Preventing Catastrophe: US Policy Options for Management of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia, Lt Col Martin J. “Marty” Wojtysiak, USAF, proposes a response to the dangerous proliferation of nuclear weapons in India and Pakistan. This paper highlights the threat in “The Nuclear Catastrophe of 2005,” a gripping projection of the worstcase scenario on the current realities of the Indian subcontinent. Written a year after the “catastrophe,” it vividly describes the events leading up to the disaster as well as the grim aftermath of a South Asian nuclear war. The remainder of the paper looks at US regional objectives and suggests how they might be achieved. The author proposes a regional proliferation regime that realistically addresses the threat and moves the United States to a pragmatic approach to manage and limit the ongoing proliferation in South Asia....

In this important study, Lt Col Wayne Johnson, USAF, argues that systematic tightening of interagency cooperation and better work on defining sensitive technology prohibitions are needed to maintain the US technological edge. He also maintains that the US government requires a new and disciplined export control process—not the current mosaic of rules, regulations, and perspectives that came out of the cold war, but a process that provides a revamped, systemic approach with consistent implementation. Colonel Johnson explores the problem of defining which technologies the United States is willing to transfer(military or dual-use) and the need to ensure that national security objectives do not take a backseat to economic expediency. To accomplish this end, he argues for better interagency cooperation as a first step leading to a more centralized, coordinated, and strategic view of technology transfer and how it impacts US national security....

In his book The Quest: Haywood Hansell and American Strategic Bombing in World War II, Charles Griffith makes a major contribution in detailing the role played by General Hansell from his early days as an instructor at the Air Corps Tactical School to the heady days and nights as a young war planner developing the air war plan used by the United States during World War II to his triumphs and disappointments as a commander in the field. While the book tells this story well, it does more than just relate the life and times of Possum Hansell. The book goes a long way toward explaining the origins of many of the arguments about the utility of airpower in the closing decade of the twentieth century....

1 THE PROBLEMS OF AIRPOWER . . . . . . . . . 1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2 THE EARLY YEARS: EDUCATION AND ACTS .23 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 3 PLANNING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 4 THE FRICTIONS OF WAR . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 5 THE GLOBAL BOMBER FORCE . . . . . . . . .129 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 6 TRIUMPH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 7 TRAGEDY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 INDEX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223...

Over the years many researchers have analyzed the political aspects of the air war in Southeast Asia. Their studies range from the original Pentagon Papers to those published more recently. Very little, however, focuses on the economic and operational aspects of the war. The purpose of this book is to fill that void by presenting a set of case studies that subject selected air campaigns during the Southeast Asia era to rigid economic analysis....

Lt Col Anthony Mastalir has done policy makers a welcome service by exploring the enigma wrapped in a conundrum which is Chinese space policy, focusing on the Chinese kinetic energy antisatellite (KE-ASAT) test of January 2007. That test ended a de facto moratorium on KE-ASAT tests which the United States and Russia had observed for over two decades. It also announced the arrival of a new player in strategic space, forcing a reevaluation of US capabilities in space as well as Chinese intentions there. Colonel Mastalir examines both that reevaluation and those intentions, relying on open-source material, particularly from Chinese strategic and military analysts....

1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 2 EXTREME DIMENSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 3 POLITICAL/DIPLOMATIC DIMENSION . . . . 25 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 4 INFORMATION DIMENSION . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59 5 ECONOMIC DIMENSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71 6 MILITARY DIMENSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .86 7 FINDINGS/CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . .89 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .103...

The third world continues to grow in its importance to the United States . Often possessing a wealth of vital natural resources or a geographic position astride crucial lines of communications, third world nations have, in many cases, become the focal point of East-West confrontations . Additionally, the frequent political turmoil and economic crises that plague some of these third world nations often threaten the vital interests of the West . For all of these reasons, it is imperative that we understand the utility and limitations of military power applied to crisis situations in the third world. Land based air power is of particular importance in rapidly developing crises because of its range of action and speed of response . Dr Mets' study focuses on land-based air power in a variety of these situations over the past three decades. Clearly, the subject is important to our understanding of the most effective use of air power. It is also clear that Dr Mets has made a significant contribution to the literature of air power and provides a message that we all should heed ....

1 POLITICAL OBJECTIVES AND MILITARY POWER: SOME RELATIONSHIPS . . . . . . . . . .1 Crisis Defined . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Categories and Characteristics of Military Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Land-Based Air Power Capabilities . . . . . . . . 3 Options in Selecting Land-Based AirPower. . . .5 Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2 THE THIRD WORLD ANDTHEUNITED STATES: PROBLEMS, ASSUMPTIONS, AND OUTLOOKS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Problems and Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Blind Alleys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Crises and Violence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Interdependence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Diffusing Advanced Arms to Less-Developed Countries (LDCs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 Utility of Military Power . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .27 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 3 THEMAYAGUEZ INCIDENT: SIMPLE CRISIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Scenario . .. . . . . . . . ...

This study investigates Europe’s motives to develop the independent satellite navigation system known as Galileo despite the existence of America’s successful global positioning system (GPS). The study begins by analyzing both systems to familiarize the reader with global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) and to provide an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of GPS and Galileo, as well as the systems’ similarities and differences. Although the two systems have different founding principles, they employ similar infrastructures and operational concepts. In the short term, Galileo will provide better accuracy for civilian users until GPS upgrades take effect. But performance is only part of the rationale. The author contends that Europe’s pursuit of Galileo is driven by a combination of reasons, including performance, independence, and economic incentive. With Galileo, Europe hopes to achieve political, security, and technological independence from the United States....

DISCLAIMER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ii FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii ABOUT THE AUTHOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xi 1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2 GPS VERSUS GALILEO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27 3 WHY GALILEO? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 4 IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS . .51 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Illustrations 1 Satellite geometry 9 2 Global positioning system (GPS) satellite 14 3 Galileo satellite 16 Table 1 Number of visible satellites for various masking angles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13...

Boyd and Warden represent a major transition in the evolution of air power theory. Early air power theorists argued that one could defeat the enemy by paralyzing his war-making and war-sustaining capabilities—a form of economic warfare based upon industrial targeting. In contrast, Boyd and Warden contend thatone should target enemy command and control—that is, control warfare based upon command targeting....

INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 Notes . . . . . 4 THE NOTION OF STRATEGIC PARALYSIS . . . . . 5 Notes . . . . . 10 BOYD’S THEORY OF STRATEGIC PARALYSIS . . . . . 13 Notes . . . . . 20 WARDEN’S THEORY OF STRATEGIC PARALYSIS . . . . . 23 Notes . . . . . 30 CLAUSEWITZ AND JOMINI REVISITED . . . . 33 Notes . . . . . 37 BOYD, WARDEN, AND THE EVOLUTION OF AIR POWER THEORY . . . . 39 The Past—Paralysis by Economic Warfare and Industrial Targeting . . . . 39 The Present—Paralysis by Control Warfare and Command Targeting . . . . 41 The Future—Paralysis by Control Warfare and Informational Targeting . . . . 42 Notes . . . . . 44 7 CONCLUSION . . . . . 47 Notes . . . . . 50 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . 51...

National leaders are debating the merits of American weapons in space. A decision to operationally deploy such weapons would reverse the United States’s long-standing commitment to space as a sanctuary. That sanctuary—the idea that space should remain relatively unthreatened by weapons—has been challenged in the past but for the most part still exists today. Further weaponizing space, though, could change that and introduces important issues. The political, military, social, economic, and diplomatic ramifications of American space weapons demand that strategists carefully consider all sides of this critical debate. Current defense literature, however, indicates analysts and leaders have been slow to develop the arguments supporting a space sanctuary. This omission could undermine the military community’s appreciation for all aspects of both problem and solution. In turn the quality of the space strategy eventually pursued might suffer. This study attempts to understand the argument against weapons in space. It asks the question: Could pursuing a space sanctuary policy in the immediate future benefit the national interest? This study...

INTRODUCTION . . . . . 1 DEFINITIONS . . . . 5 SPACE WEAPONS AND THE AMERICAN EXPERIENCE . . . . 9 CONTEMPORARY US POLICY AND SPACE WEAPONS . . . . 21 THE SANCTUARY ARGUMENT . . . . 27 CONCLUSIONS . . . . 47...

In sum, the petroleum-based sector of a nation’s economy offers a large, vulnerable target for today’s air planner. By merging the lessons of the past with current and future trends, one can achieve immediate results and dramatically affect the out-come of war....

1 INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 2 UNLIMITED WAR AND OIL . . . . 3 Summary . . . . . 10 3 LIMITED WAR AND OIL . . . . . 11 Summary . . . . . 15 4 HYPERWAR AND THE FUTURE . . . . . 17 Summary . . . . . 27 5 CONCLUSION . . . . . 29 Notes . . . . . 31 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . 39...

Having flown in a single-seat cockpit more than 14 hours deploying to Southwest Asia, I am familiar with the negative effects of long duration flights as well as the impact transmeridian sorties have on an aircrew’s circadian rhythm. Any attempt to make that experience less painful for the aviators climbing into their jets during future deployments deserves pursuit and further investigation. Unfortunately, a great deal of the information available for the operational aircrews is either underemphasized at best or totally ignored by the personnel that the data is intended to support, the aviators. Typically, fatigue and circadian rhythm disruption are assumed as “necessary evils” that aviators have no choice but to accept. Yet fatigue can be a significant factor in terms of performance degradation and must no longer be overlooked. I have amassed the most current research regarding fatigue and its associated countermeasures, and I strongly recommend both commanders and aircrews apply the information presented in this research paper if they are to continue to safely meet the challenges of an Expeditionary Aerospace Force....

The reader should know that the scenario presented in this monograph is not a forecast of a specific future but rather is structured to help the reader understand the magnitude and shape of Africa’s largest economy and the impact it has on the world. As we see in the 2009 global recession and credit crisis in today’s globalized world, a failure in Nigeria, like the failure of almost any other nation, could have serious repercussions across the planet. Whether Nigeria is able to grow into a thriving, stable, and vibrant democracy or whether it becomes a failed state, the people of the United States must be ready to support Nigeria as a fellow member of the international system....

1 INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 2 NIGERIA IN CONTEXT: DEFINING FAILURE . . . . 9 3 THE SOCIAL SCHISMS OF NIGERIA . . . . 21 Col Douglas W. Jaquis 4 NIGERIAN POLITICS . . . . 33 Col Mark D. DeLong 5 NIGERIA’S ECONOMY . . . 39 Col Daniel B. Gordon 6 MILITARY VECTORS . . . . 55 Col Robert S. McAllum 7 NIGERIA IN 2030: PATHS TO FAILURE . . . .65 Col Christopher J. Kinnan 8 TECHNOLOGY AND FAILED STATE 2030—THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCERESPONDS . . . . .95 Col Christopher J. Kinnan 9 SUMMARY . . . . . 109...