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In this study Lt Col Joseph M. Codispoti, USAF, describes an emerging partnership between two long-time allies of the United States—Turkey and Israel. On the surface this Muslim-Jewish partnership seems unlikely, particularly on the fringes of the Arab world. A closer examination, however, reveals a number of mutual security interests and a shared sense of isolation at the crossroads of Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East. The Turco-Israeli partnership has important national security implications for the United States. Working in tandem, these allies can promote the American vision for the region by fostering democracy, peace, and free markets in the region....

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This book is about national security strategy : what it is, what its objectives are, what problems it seeks to solve or at least manage, and what kinds of influences constrain and create opportunities for the development and implementation of strategies....

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ANZUS is a defense alliance, a special and functional relationship between three close allies-Australia, New Zealand, and the United States .

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The United States has been involved in peace enforcement operations for many years. In that time we have learned some lessons. Unfortunately, we continue to repeat many of the same mistakes. Sometimes we have forgotten hard-learned lessons, and sometimes we never learned from our earlier experiences. Focusing on command and control, the issues can be loosely grouped into categories of force and command structure, political impacts, and interoperability. Finally, for a multinational peace enforcement operation to succeed, interoperability must be achieved. Equipment and logistics provide the most visiblearea of concern; and problems remain with equipment, fuels, and transportation andrelated skills. Overall, to improve command and control for multinational peace operations, we must look at past experiences, recognize the recurring problems, and aggressively attack the roots of those problems. This paper identifies some of the “stickiest wickets” from the Dominican Republic and Somalia and suggests some solutions. The solutions are not simple or easy, but if we ignore the problems, they will certainly not simply go away....

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1. INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 Notes . . . . . . 2 2. COMMAND AND FORCE STRUCTURE . . . . . . 3 Dominican Republic . . . . 3 Somalia . . . . . 9 Summary . . . . 19 Notes . . . . . . 21 3. POLITICAL IMPACTS ON OPERATIONS . . . . . 27 Dominican Republic . . . . 27 Somalia . . . . . 35 Summary . . . . 45 Notes . . . . . . 47 4. INTEROPERABILITY ISSUES . . . . . 53 Dominican Republic . . . . 53 Somalia . . . . . 59 Intelligence . . . . . . 63 Summary . . . . 68 Notes . . . . . . 70 5. CONCLUSION . . . . . 75 Notes . . . . . . 79...

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From this basic research and meetings with Chinese experts both in the United States and in China, the team began to explore the various directions China might take in the future. This exploration is not a forecast of a specific future, but rather is designed to help the reader better understand the magnitude and shape of a rapidly rising Asian power. This power may be our friend or foe. Whatever it does become, the nation must be ready to engage it as a fellow member of the international system....

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . .1 Col John P. Geis II, PhD 2. THE INFLUENCE OF CULTURE, DEMOGRAPHICS, AND EDUCATION ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MIDDLE KINGDOM . . . .7 Lt Col Scott E. Caine 3. 正义与和谐社会 (HARMONIOUS SOCIETY: RISE OF THE NEW BOXERS) . . . 29 Col Blaine D. Holt Col John P. Geis II, PhD 4. THE PEACEFUL DEVELOPMENT ROAD: CHINA’S ECONOMIC PROGRAM . . . . 47 Col Edwin F. Donaldson 5. CHINA’S MILITARY MODERNIZATION . . .71 Lt Col Ralph A. Sandfry, PhD 6. HARMONIOUS DISCORDANCE: CHINA IN 2030 . . . . . 93 Col John P. Geis II, PhD 7. CONCLUSION: US CAPABILITIES NEEDED TO RESPOND TO POTENTIAL CHINESE CHALLENGES . . . . 109 ABBREVIATIONS . . . 123...

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This is a book of quotations and comments about air power, war, and military matters. But it would be a great mistake to simply read the quotes and take them literally. Each selection presents a picture that you can look at again and again. Taken together, different views of the same subject matter are like a drafter's plans: they can make either an interesting multiple-view description of the subject or a puzzle....

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From the Mind to the Feet: Assessing the Perception-to-Intent-to-Action Dynamic is an interagency, multidisciplinary collection of 12 essays addressing operational and academic perspectives on the elusive concept of an adversary’s “intent”—its indicators and relation to behavior. It is primarily intended for the operational and policy community in the Department of Defense, the intelligence community, the Department of Homeland Security, and other US government agencies....

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DISCLAIMER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ii FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .v ABOUT THE AUTHORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 PART 1 Operational Perspective: Basic Issues in Gauging Intent 1 From Shoe Leather to Satellites: Shifting the Conceptual Lens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Kathleen L. Kiernan and Daniel J. Mabrey 2 Betting Responsibly: An Effects-Based Thinker’s Framework for Characterizing Intent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 Harry A. Foster 3 Gauging the Intent of Nation-States and Nonstate Actors: An Operator’s Perspective . 27 Gary Schaub, Jr. 4 From Observation to Action: Redefining Winning and Sovereignty for the Information Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 John W. Bodnar PART 2 Academic Perspective: Theory and Research in Gauging Intent 5 Anthropological Reflections on Motive and Intent and the Strategic Multilayer Ass...

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When the Cold War set off a prolonged arms race and space competition with the Soviet Union, this well-educated cadre of the greatest generation was ready to provide the technical and managerial expertise needed to meet the Soviet challenge. Combining patriotism with a desire to be on the cutting edge of technology, these “technocrats” played key roles in the defense industry, university and federal research centers, the military services, and other government agencies....

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It is understandable that developments in Europe are carefully monitored in the United States. US concern that its relationship to a unified Europe will be different from the relationship with Europe as it exists now is also quite obvious. There must be a new balance. This paper offers a perfect view of how the new US-EU relationship will develop. It will take time before a unified Europe will be a powerful ally, especially from a military point of view, but we will get there. Meanwhile, we will continue to make critical comments regarding US foreign policy decisions....

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1 NOSTALGIA, NATO, AND THE NEW EUROPE . .1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 2 THE VERY MODEL OF A MODERN MAJOR NATION-STATE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 3 ANARCHY, POWER, AND INTEREST: UNDERSTANDING ALLIANCES . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 4 GOOD-BYE TO ALL THAT: THE END OF NOSTALGIA IN THE TRANSATLANTIC ALLIANCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63...

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Is America’s counterinsurgency (COIN) effort being shortchanged? Does a one-dimensional doctrine fail to exploit America’s full COIN potential? Would a genuinely joint approach provide better options to decision makers confronted with the harsh realities of twenty-first century insurgencies? This study insists the answers are unequivocally “yes.” It analyzes the pitfalls of accepting Army/Marine tactical doctrine as the joint solution. It also offers insights and ideas from an Airman’s perspective for strengthening joint COIN doctrine development in order to deliver fresh alternatives to our national decision-makers and combatant commanders....

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................iii INTRODUCTION ........................................1 FM 3-24’S GROUND-FORCE CONVENTIONALITY ......................................................8 COIN AND AN AIRMAN’S WAY OF THINKING .......................................................11 FM 3-24’S AIRPOWER MYTHS.....................18 CONSIDERATIONS FOR AIRMINDED COIN DOCTRINE ..........................................28 CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS.................63 END NOTES ..........................................69...

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During the Cold War, the Air Force had a fairly easy time explaining its mission to the American public. It also had a coherent public affairs structure to help execute that mission. The new threat environment in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, combined with steep personnel cuts to its public affairs community, have dramatically altered the communication challenge for the Air Force. To effectively operate in this new climate with an emphasis on strategic communication, the Air Force has tinkered with a few organizational models to strengthen the communication function....

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DISCLAIMER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ii FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 A BRIEF HISTORY OF STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 AIR FORCE STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION EFFORTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 AN ALTERNATIVE MODEL: US NAVY PUBLIC AFFAIRS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR AIR FORCE COMMUNICATION EFFORTS . . . . . . . . . . . .29 NOTES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35...

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The intent of this research is to provide an analysis of the ICBM maintenance team utilization at the current intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) alert rate and at lowered alert rates. Quantitative research methodologies are used to model historical ICBM maintenance data from the 341st Maintenance Group (MG) and simulate future maintenance team utilization at both the current and decreased ICBM alert rates. The results of this simulation and modeling show negligible savings in overall ICBM maintenance team utilization....

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With the ending of the Cold War, the apparent conclusion of many political leaders of states that war is hardly a practical tool of statesmanship, and the recent preoccupations of the American military on counterinsurgency, some people have wondered whether the original reasons for the founding of a separate air force are any longer valid. The original argument for the autonomous air force was that its Airmen would be the only ones whose perception was concentrated on the global level. The conclusion is therefore that the argument remains valid that a service with consistent culture focused on the problems of global vigilance, global reach, and global power is a fundamental requirement for United States national security. Only an organization made up of Airmen whose indoctrination from the start of their service is concentrated on a global outlook can satisfy that requirement. ...

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I believe the author has filled a critical gap in aerial warfare literature. Most works focus on the technical or tactical aspects of our profession and medium, but stop short of discussions of the broader nature of war itself. Consideration of war in that larger sense is essential for those who seek to understand and especially apply air and space power in combat....

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The purpose of The Role of Rhetorical Theory in Military Intelligence Analysis is to share Major Mills’s rhetorical understanding with young officers attending initial intelligence training. Throughout he infuses key elements from the rhetorical discourse community into the discourse community that deals with training in military intelligence....

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2 LET’S GET RHETORICAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 3 INTELLIGENCE PROCESS . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 4 WHAT THE FOUCAULT? . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26 5 POWER PLUG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 6 DISCONTINUITY FEVER . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 7 IN THE TRENCHES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 8 CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 INDEX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63...

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The reader should know that the scenario presented in this monograph is not a forecast of a specific future but rather is structured to help the reader understand the magnitude and shape of Africa’s largest economy and the impact it has on the world. As we see in the 2009 global recession and credit crisis in today’s globalized world, a failure in Nigeria, like the failure of almost any other nation, could have serious repercussions across the planet. Whether Nigeria is able to grow into a thriving, stable, and vibrant democracy or whether it becomes a failed state, the people of the United States must be ready to support Nigeria as a fellow member of the international system....

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 2 NIGERIA IN CONTEXT: DEFINING FAILURE . . . . 9 3 THE SOCIAL SCHISMS OF NIGERIA . . . . 21 Col Douglas W. Jaquis 4 NIGERIAN POLITICS . . . . 33 Col Mark D. DeLong 5 NIGERIA’S ECONOMY . . . 39 Col Daniel B. Gordon 6 MILITARY VECTORS . . . . 55 Col Robert S. McAllum 7 NIGERIA IN 2030: PATHS TO FAILURE . . . .65 Col Christopher J. Kinnan 8 TECHNOLOGY AND FAILED STATE 2030—THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCERESPONDS . . . . .95 Col Christopher J. Kinnan 9 SUMMARY . . . . . 109...

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In The Politics of Coercion: Toward a Theory of Coercive Airpower for Post–Cold War Conflict, Lt Col Ellwood P. “Skip” Hinman IV confronts an issue of high interest to airmen and policy makers alike: What does coercion theory suggest about the use of airpower in the early twenty-first century? More specifically, Colonel Hinman seeks to determine whether any of the existing theories of coercion can stand alone as a coherent, substantive, and codified approach to airpower employment. Framing his analysis on three key attributes of conflict in the post–Cold War era—limited, nonprotracted war; political re-straint; and the importance of a better state of peace—Hinman examines the contemporary applicability of the four major theories of coercive airpower: punishment, risk, decapitation, and denial....

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INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 What Is a Theory of Coercive Airpower? . . . . 2 The Attributes of Post–Cold War Conflict . . .4 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2 COERCION THEORY AND THE POST–COLD WAR ERA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Punishment-Based Coercion: A Theory for Total War . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Risk-Based Coercion: A Theory for Limited War . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 Decapitation-Based Coercion: Echoes of the Past . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Denial-Based Coercion: Too Much of a Good Thing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 3 A NEW THEORY FOR A NEW ERA . . . . . . . .31 Phase One . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Phase Two . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36 Phase Three . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Limited, Nonprotracted War and the Coercion Hybrid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 The Coercion Hybrid and the Politically Restrained Natur...

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In the 53-year history of the United States Air Force (USAF), only two airmen have risen to serve as regional commanders in chief (CINC). During the same period, 74 soldiers, sailors, and Marines were selected for geographic CINC billets. In Once in a Blue Moon: Airmen in Theater Command, Lt Col Howard D. Belote examines the reasons for this disparity and suggests how airmen might improve their prospects for becoming future regional commanders....

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DISCLAIMER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii ABOUT THE AUTHOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ix INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .91 EARLY PERSPECTIVES ON JOINT/COALITION COMMAND. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .97 AN AIRMAN COMMANDER IN CHIEF: LAURIS NORSTAD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 AN AIRMAN COMMANDER IN CHIEF AT WAR: ALBRECHT KESSELRING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31 CONTEMPORARY PERSPECTIVES . . . . . . . . .53 CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62 IMPLICATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66 RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79 FINAL THOUGHTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83 NOTES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 BIBLIOGRAPHY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .99 Illustrations 1 Allied Advances in Italy, 1943–44 . . . . . . 41 2 Commanders in Chief versus USAF Generals’ Careers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 Photographs Gen Dwight D. Eisenhower and Gen Lauris Norstad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...

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The ground and air forces have strong interlocking connections in the battlefield operations known as close air support (CAS). In the 1970s the Army and Air Force began to develop a shared battlefield doctrine known as battlefield air interdiction(BAI) that was concerned with a class of targets that lay out a fair distance from the front lines. Later, on the battlefields of Desert Storm, the Air Force excluded BAI from its tasking orders, although some claimed interdiction missions of this nature were carried out under different names. Lt Col Terrance J. McCaffrey III looks into What Happened to BAI? Army and Air Force Battlefield Doctrine Development from Pre–Desert Storm to 2001. He traces airground doctrine and operational practices relative to battlefield interdiction from World War I to Operation Desert Storm and suggests at one point that even the flank support for Patton was, in effect, BAI. The author carries the discussion through the decade after Desert Storm and shows how the issue is too important to be dropped by either service, even as technology provides new weapons for both services....

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 2 ORIGINS OF BATTLEFIELD AIR INTERDICTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28 3 WHERE WAS BATTLEFIELD AIR INTERDICTION IN DESERT STORM? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 4 WAS BATTLEFIELD AIR INTERDICTION A VICTIM OF SUCCESS? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71 5 IS BATTLEFIELD AIR INTERDICTION BACK? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .93 6 CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS . . . . . 97 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 GLOSSARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .107 ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115...

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This research will determine why leftism is on the rise and whether US national security is being threatened. The causes are a combination of extreme inequality with regards to income per capita, an increased awareness among the populace as to its unequal situation, a poor display of US foreign policy, and an increase in education levels throughout the region. Based on these findings, three policy proposals are recommended. First, the United States needs to pioneer fairer trade agreements. Second, the United States needs to increase its foreign aid, with earmarks for economic investments. Third, the United States needs to work harder at being a good neighbor. These three steps should pull the region together and thereby increase the entire hemisphere’s security....

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This study analyzes the way the Department of Defense currently funds the Defense Transportation System (DTS). The central question that this study attempts to answer is does the current decentralized, service-centered, budgeting process optimize national mobility capabilities or would centralized budget authority, under United States Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM), offer greater potential for balancing mobility capabilities and requirements? To answer this question this study examines the current process employed to maintain the DTS and comparing the current system to one possible alternative: US Transportation Command Budget Authority. The study accomplishes this by first describing the objective of the budgeting process, which is to balance limited lift capabilities against demanding requirements, and follows this description of the “transportation balance” with a brief description of the DTS. The study continues with an analysis of the current process used to support the balance of this DTS. This analysis includes a study of the planning, programming, and budgeting system (PPBS) from both the Navy and Air Force perspective ...

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 Notes . . . . 4 2 THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEM . . . . . . 5 Notes . . . . 12 3 THE PROCESS TODAY . . . . . 15 Notes . . . . 26 4 THE PROPOSED PROCESS . . . . . 29 Notes . . . . 35 5 PRECEDENCE AND INDICATORS . . . . . . 37 Notes . . . . 44 6 SUMMARY, IMPLICATIONS, AND CONCLUSION . . . . . 47 Notes . . . . 52...

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In the first comprehensive study of US security cooperation in Central Asia, Michael J. McCarthy explores these efforts, seeking to understand not only the details of the individual programs but, more importantly, to understand the objectives of those activities and the policies and strategies that drive them. The Limits of Friendship: US Security Cooperation in Central Asia unravels 15 years of military activities in this pivotal region, tracing the ebb and flow of the bilateral and multilateral relationships and how they translate into specific security-cooperation programs....

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Lt Col Clint Hinote looks at recent combat operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, interested particularly with the operational intersection of air and ground forces. He discovered a continuing dialog about one of the Air Force’s major tenets—centralized control, decentralized execution. He suggests that all parties, both ground and air advocates, may need to reexamine the purpose and application of this doctrinal point....

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DISCLAIMER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v ABOUT THE AUTHOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix CENTRALIZED CONTROL AND DECENTRALIZED EXECUTION: A CATCHPHRASE IN CRISIS? . . . 1 Salvaging the Master Tenet . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Historical Context and an Age-Old Question . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Breaking Down the Master Tenet and Understanding Fundamental Issues . . . . . 13 Challenges in Iraq and Afghanistan . . . . . .22 Answering the Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Centralization versus Decentralization in Air Operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 NOTES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 ...

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I wanted to research and write a paper that will provide a culturally based view of social and political change and the strategic implications those changes might have on international relations and, specifically, military policy and planning. It is my hope that this research will give policy makers and planners cause to consider carefully the important underlying cultural factors that inevitably influence the strategic goals and behaviors of nations as they respond to a dynamic contextual environment and interact with each other on the global stage....

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To ensure that the DOD is properly managing taxpayer’s money while still providing the best for our soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines, we must not pay just lip service to this upcoming quadrennial defense review....

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 3 Alternati ves for the Next QDR . . . . . 13 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 4 Recommendation for Implementing a PQDR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28 5 CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33...

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An extended nuclear deterrent for protecting allies may also contribute significantly to nonproliferation efforts—the nuclear umbrella provides allies an assurance so they do not perceive the need to develop nuclear weapons arsenals for themselves. This study explores the impact of US nuclear weapon policy on the current and future effectiveness of extended nuclear deterrence for the Republic of Turkey. It concludes that the credibility of US extended nuclear deterrence for Turkey depends on many factors and not just the quality and quantity of the US nuclear arsenal....

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . .1 Why Turkey? . . . . .2 The Argument: It’s All about Relationships and Leadership . . . .5 Research Questions and Methods . . . . .5 Outline . . . . .6 Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations . . . . .6 2 WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF AMERICAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS? . . . . .11 Political Uses for US Nuclear Weapons . . . .12 A Special Case of Deterrence: Extended Nuclear Deterrence . . . . .15 Linking Extended Nuclear Deterrence and Nonproliferation . . . . .19 Summary and Cautions . . . . .21 3 ASSESSING US EXTENDED NUCLEAR DETERRENCE FOR THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY . . . . .27 Assessing Credibility Elements for US Extended Deterrence . . . .28 Assessing Nuclear Weapons Tipping Point: Warnings and Indicators . . . . .35 Few Warnings and Indicators of Real Intentions and Capabilities . . . .44 Summary and Conclusions . . . .45 4 IMPROVING US EXTENDED NUCLEAR DETERRENCE FOR THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY . . . . .51 Addressing Credibility Elements . . . .51 Adding Weight: Preventing Tipping . . . .58 Summary and Conclusions . . . .61 5 CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS . .65 Conclusions . . . . .65 Policy Impl...

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This compelling study by Lt Col Lawrence E. Key examines how national will plays a decisive role during any application of US military power and not just the employment of forces to fight America’s wars. Because of the decisive role national will plays, leaders need to understand what it is and, beyond its definition, the ways in which they can articulate and cultivate it. To gain this understanding, leaders must look at various means by which the American public expresses its collective will; the most important means being public opinion. However, the author argues that only mature collective opinion can represent national will....

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Arguably a top tier concern for American foreign policy for more than a few years, Iran gets the meticulous attention of two distinguished Air Force scholars. Lt Cols Charles A. Douglass and Michael D. Hays are critical of the current American policy toward Iran and tell us why. More importantly, they point to elements necessary for an effective Iranian strategy. Their aim: “to change the fundamental calculus of the Iranian problem” to one beneficial for both Americans and Iranians....

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1 SOLVING IRAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2 IRAN’S PERCEPTIONS AND PATTERNS: HISTORIC ROOTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Ancient Persian Greatness and Cultural Pride . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Resentment of Foreign Interference . . . . . . 7 Persian-Shiite Strategic Loneliness . . . . . 10 Pragmatic National Interest Replaces Revolutionary Ideology . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 3 ANALYSIS OF IRAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 Demographics, Politics, and Economics . . . .24 Internal Dynamics, Personalities, Power Centers, and Factions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Nuclear Desire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43 4 US PERCEPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49 US Perceptions of Iran Internally . . . . . . . .49 US Perceptions of Iran Externally . . . . . . . 51 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 5 REVIEW OF RECENT US POLICY . . . . . . . ....

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None before Prof. John Norton Moore has argued the value of democratic principles in deterrence and conflict avoidance. In this important book, Dr. Gary Sharp analyzes the concepts in Moore’s seminal work The War Puzzle (2005), which describes Moore’s incentive theory of war avoidance. Sharp carefully dissects Moore’s deterrence model and examines those incentives that discourage nondemocratic governments from pursuing violent conflicts. Arguing that existing democracies must make an active effort to foster the political environment in which new democracies can develop, Sharp discusses the elements critical to promoting democratization and thus strengthening system wide deterrence at the state and international levels....

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1 LIBERAL DEMOCRACY AND ITS GLOBAL INFLUENCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Features of a Liberal Democracy . . . . . . . . .2 Global Political Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 2 CONVENTIONAL THEORIES OF WAR AND WAR AVOIDANCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Conventional Thinking on the Cause of War . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Conventional Approaches to War Avoidance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Deterrence as a Tool of War Avoidance . . . .31 The Law of Conflict Management . . . . . . .35 The Future of Armed Conflict . . . . . . . . . . 38 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 3 THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE PRINCIPLE . . . .45 The Early Debate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Contemporary Studies and Methodologies . 49 Explanations for the Democratic Peace Principle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Challenges and Alternate Rationales . . . . . 72 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 ...

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DISCLAIMER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii ABOUT THE AUTHOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 THE INNOVATION IMPERATIVE . . . . . . . . . 3 THE ADVERSARIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 THE PLAN: 3 AUGUST 1990–15 JANUARY 1991 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 CLASH OF ARMS: 17–26 JANUARY 1991 . . . .28 CENTAF ADAPTS: 27 JANUARY–5 FEBRUARY 1991 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42 ATTRITION WAR: 6–23 FEBRUARY 1991 . . . 59 GROUND WAR: 24–28 FEBRUARY 1991 . . . .63 THE KEYS TO INNOVATION . . . . . . . . . . . 71 IMPLICATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 NOTES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Appendix A Primary USAF Units That Participated . . . 101 B Chronology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 C Location of Air Strikes during Desert Storm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 D Distribution of Strikes against RGFC Heavy Divisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 E Iraqi Prisoner of War Comment...