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Michigan gubernatorial election, 2014

Michigan gubernatorial election, 2014

November 4, 2014

Turnout 3,156,531
 
Nominee Rick Snyder Mark Schauer
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,605,034 1,476,904
Percentage 50.9% 46.8%

County results

Governor before election

Rick Snyder
Republican

Elected Governor

Rick Snyder
Republican

The Michigan gubernatorial election of 2014 took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Michigan, concurrently with the election of Michigan's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Governor Rick Snyder ran for re-election to a second term in office.[1] Primary elections took place on August 5, 2014, in which Snyder and former U.S. Representative Mark Schauer were unopposed in the Republican and Democratic primaries, respectively.[2]

Snyder was considered vulnerable in his bid for a second term, as reflected in his low approval ratings.[3][4][5][6] The consensus among The Cook Political Report,[7] Governing,[8] The Rothenberg Political Report,[9] Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] and Daily Kos Elections[11] was that the contest was a "tossup". Snyder was saddled with a negative approval rating, while his Democratic opponent, former U.S. Representative Mark Schauer, suffers from a lack of name recognition.[12][13]

Snyder was re-elected with 50.9% of the vote.

Contents

  • Republican primary 1
    • Candidates 1.1
      • Declared 1.1.1
      • Failed to qualify 1.1.2
      • Declined 1.1.3
    • Polling 1.2
    • Results 1.3
  • Democratic primary 2
    • Candidates 2.1
      • Declared 2.1.1
      • Withdrew 2.1.2
      • Declined 2.1.3
    • Polling 2.2
    • Results 2.3
  • Minor parties 3
    • Candidates 3.1
      • Libertarian Party 3.1.1
      • Green Party 3.1.2
      • U.S. Taxpayers Party 3.1.3
  • Independents 4
    • Candidates 4.1
      • Declared 4.1.1
  • General election 5
    • Predictions 5.1
    • Debates 5.2
    • Polling 5.3
    • Results 5.4
  • See also 6
  • References 7
  • External links 8

Republican primary

Polling has indicated significant opposition from Republican primary voters in Michigan towards Snyder's bid for re-election.[14][15][16][17] This has come in the midst of now-public discussions by the Tea Party network regarding whether incumbent Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley should be replaced as Snyder's running mate.[14][18] Snyder started running campaign ads in September 2013, immediately following the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference[19] and formally declared that he is seeking re-election in January 2014.[1]

On August 26, 2013, Tea Party leader Wes Nakagiri ended weeks of speculation and formally announced that he had filed the necessary paperwork to challenge Calley for the Republican nomination for Lieutenant Governor.[20][21][22] At the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference (September 20–22, 2013), speculation reported by the media also included Todd Courser as a potential challenger to Calley.[23] At the Michigan Republican Party state convention, which took take place on August 23, 2014, incumbent Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley won renomination.[24]

On January 3, 2014, Mark McFarlin (who had originally declared his intention to run as a Democrat on November 29, 2013), announced that he would be running for the Republican nomination.[25][26] He believed that his conservative populist platform was too conservative for the Democratic ticket, and that he could get crossover support in the general election. However, he did not submit his filing petitions in time to qualify for the August primary ballot.[2]

Candidates

Declared

Failed to qualify

  • Mark McFarlin, private investigator and Independent write-in candidate for Governor in 2002 (had declared as a Democrat, then switched parties)[25][26][2]

Declined

Polling

Results

Republican primary results[30]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rick Snyder 617,720 100%
Totals 617,720 100%

Democratic primary

Michigan Democratic Party leadership has rallied support behind former U.S. Representative Mark Schauer, who is running unopposed in the Democratic Party primary. Party Chairman Lon Johnson has encouraged all other potential challengers to stay out of the race so as to avoid a costly and potentially bitter primary campaign.[31] Conservative Democrat and "birther" Mark McFarlin had announced on November 29, 2013, that he was running for the Democratic nomination for Governor,[25] but he switched parties on January 3, 2014,[26] leaving Schauer as the only candidate for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Results

Democratic primary results[30]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Schauer 513,263 100%
Totals 513,263 100%

Minor parties

Candidates

Libertarian Party

Green Party

  • Paul Homeniuk[46]
    Running mate: Candace Caveny, nominee for the State Senate in 2006, 2008 and 2010 and nominee for the State Board of Education in 2012

U.S. Taxpayers Party

  • Mark McFarlin, Independent write-in candidate for Governor in 2002[46]
    Running mate: Richard Mendoza

Independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Tossup[48] October 29, 2014
Daily Kos Elections Tossup[49] October 29, 2014
Rothenberg Tossup/Tilt R[50] October 29, 2014
RealClearPolitics Tossup[51] October 29, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean R[52] October 29, 2014
Rasmussen Reports Tossup[53] October 29, 2014
CQ Politics Tilts R[54] October 29, 2014

Debates

Schauer has agreed to almost every debate that has been proposed; Snyder has been non-committal about participating in debates.[55]

Schauer and Snyder agreed to a town hall style debate that was held October 12 on the campus of Wayne State University in Detroit. It was co-sponsored by the Detroit News, the Detroit Free Press and public TV station WTVS which televised the debate and sent the feed to other TV stations in Michigan as well as C-SPAN.[56][57] The debate is available for viewing online.[58] No further debates are scheduled.[59]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Snyder (R)
Mark
Schauer (D)
Other Undecided
Mitchell Research November 3, 2014 1,310 ± 2.7% 48.1% 47.4% 3%[60] 2%
Mitchell Research November 2, 2014 1,224 ± 2.8% 47.1% 46.9% 4%[61] 3%
Clarity Campaign Labs November 1–2, 2014 1,003 ± 3.08% 45% 45% 10%
Public Policy Polling November 1–2, 2014 914 ± 3.2% 46% 45% 4%[62] 5%
47% 47% 5%
EPIC-MRA October 26–28, 2014 600 ± 4% 45% 43% 3% 9%
Mitchell Research October 27, 2014 1,159 ± 2.88% 48% 43% 3.4%[63] 5%
Glengariff Group October 22–24, 2014 600 ± 4% 45.2% 39.5% 5% 10.3%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 2,394 ± 3% 44% 45% 1% 11%
Rasmussen Reports October 20–22, 2014 1,000 ± 3% 49% 46% 2% 3%
Public Policy Polling October 20–21, 2014 723 ± ? 48% 48% 4%
Clarity Campaign Labs October 19–20, 2014 1,032 ± ? 41% 44% 15%
Mitchell Research October 19, 2014 919 ± 3.23% 48% 45.7% 3.4%[64] 2.9%
EPIC-MRA October 17–19, 2014 600 ± 4% 47% 39% 3% 11%
Clarity Campaign Labs October 12–14, 2014 967 ± 3.16% 44% 42% 13%
Clarity Campaign Labs October 11–13, 2014 1,032 ± ? 44% 43% 13%
Mitchell Research October 12, 2014 1,340 ± 2.68% 47% 44% 3%[65] 6%
Mitchell Research October 9, 2014 1,306 ± 2.71% 47% 46% 4%[66] 3%
Glengariff Group October 2–4, 2014 600 ± 4% 44.9% 37.1% 3.4%[67] 14.7%
Public Policy Polling October 2–3, 2014 654 ± 3.8% 47% 46% 7%
Marketing Resource Group September 30–October 1, 2014 600 ± 4% 45.7% 40.5% 4% 9.9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 2,560 ± 2% 44% 46% 1% 9%
Lake Research Partners September 27–30 2014 600 ± 4% 44% 43% 12%
Mitchell Research September 29 2014 1,178 ± 2.86% 46% 42% 5%[68] 8%
EPIC-MRA September 25–29, 2014 600 ± 4% 45% 39% 8% 8%
Target-Insyght September 22–24, 2014 616 ± 4% 44% 45% 11%
Public Policy Polling September 18–19, 2014 852 ± 3.4% 46% 44% 10%
We Ask America September 18–19, 2014 1,182 ± 3% 43% 43% 4%[69] 10%
Rasmussen Reports September 17–18, 2014 750 ± 4% 47% 41% 3% 9%
Denno Research September 11–13, 2014 600 ± 4% 43.2% 40% 16.8%
Mitchell Research September 10, 2014 829 ± 3.4% 46% 41% 7%[70] 6%
Suffolk September 6–10, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 43% 45.2% 3.8%[71] 8%
Public Policy Polling September 4–7, 2014 687 ± 3.7% 43% 42% 6%[72] 9%
46% 44% 10%
Glengariff Group September 3–5, 2014 600 ± 4% 43.6% 41.8% 2.7% 11.8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 2,897 ± 3% 44% 43% 1% 12%
Mitchell Research August 27, 2014 1,004 ± 3.09% 47% 46% 7%
EPIC-MRA August 22–25, 2014 600 ± 4% 43% 45% 12%
Lake Research Partners August 6–11 2014 800 ± 3.5% 46% 38% 15%
Mitchell Research August 5, 2014 626 ± 5% 47% 42% 11%
Rasmussen Reports July 28–29, 2014 750 ± 4% 45% 42% 5% 8%
Marketing Resource Group July 26–30, 2014 600 ± 4% 44.6% 44.3% 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 3,812 ± 2.8% 46% 43% 1% 9%
Mitchell Research July 7–17, 2014 600 ± 4% 43% 39% 17%
EPIC-MRA July 12–15, 2014 600 ± 4% 46% 43% 11%
Denno Research July 9–11, 2014 600 ± 4% 43.3% 34.7% 22%
NBC News/Marist July 7–10, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 46% 44% 1% 9%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 578 ± 4.1% 40% 40% 20%
Mitchell Research June 6, 2014 961 ± 3.16% 45.8% 40.9% 13.3%
Glengariff Group May 20–22, 2014 600 ± 4.3% 45% 35.2% 19.8%
EPIC-MRA May 17–20, 2014 600 ± 4% 47% 38% 15%
Hickman Analytics April 24–30, 2014 502 ± 4.4% 48% 37% 15%
Magellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014 875 ± 3.31% 45% 42% 9% 4%
Mitchell Research April 9, 2014 1,460 ± 2.56% 49% 37% 15%
Public Policy Polling April 3–6, 2014 825 ± 3.4% 43% 39% 18%
Marketing Resource Group March 24–28, 2014 600 ± 4.1% 46.8% 38.5% 14.2%
Denno Research March 9–10, 2014 600 ± 4% 42% 39% 20%
Benenson Strategy Group March 4–7, 2014 600 ± 4% 45% 42% 9%
Public Opinion Strategies March 2–4, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 45% 36% 19%
Clarity Campaigns February 22–23, 2014 859 ± 2.55 40% 47% 12%
Target Insyght February 18–20, 2014 600 ± ? 46.8% 38% 15.2%
EPIC-MRA February 5–11, 2014 600 ± 4% 47% 39% 14%
Harper Polling January 7–8, 2014 1,004 ± 3.09% 47% 35% 18%
Public Policy Polling December 5–8, 2013 1,034 ± 3% 44% 40% 16%
Denno Research November 12–14, 2013 600 ± 4% 44.5% 31% 24.5%
Inside Michigan Politics October 29, 2013 794 ± 4% 36.4% 33.6% 30%
MRG/Mitchell Research October 6–10, 2013 600 ± 4% 50% 36% 14%
EPIC-MRA September 7–10, 2013 600 ± 4% 44% 36% 20%
Denno Research July 23–24, 2013 600 ± 4% 43% 37% 20%
Public Policy Polling May 30–June 2, 2013 697 ± 3.7% 38% 42% 20%
EPIC-MRA May 11–15, 2013 600 ± 4% 39% 39% 22%
EPIC-MRA April 13–16, 2013 600 ± 4% 38% 39% 23%
Public Policy Polling March 2–4, 2013 702 ± 3.7% 36% 40% 24%
Public Policy Polling December 13–16, 2012 650 ± 3.8% 39% 44% 18%

Results

Michigan gubernatorial election, 2014[73]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Rick Snyder 1,607,399 50.92% -7.19%
Democratic Mark Schauer 1,479,057 46.86% +6.96%
Libertarian Mary Buzuma 35,723 1.13% +0.44%
Taxpayers Mark McFarlin 19,368 0.61% -0.04%
Green Paul Homeniuk 14,934 0.47% -0.17%
Write-ins 50 0.00% 0.00%
Majority 128,342 4.06% -14.15%
Turnout 3,156,531 -2.16%
Republican hold Swing

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c Oosting, Jonathan (January 30, 2014). "It's official: Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder launching re-election campaign with statewide tour".  
  2. ^ a b c "2014 Official Michigan Primary Candidate Listing". Miboecfr.nictusa.com. 2014-07-31. Retrieved 2014-08-04. 
  3. ^ "Handicapping the 2013-2014 Governors Races: The Tossups". Governing. July 18, 2013. Retrieved February 26, 2014. 
  4. ^ "Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder raises $5M in 2013 for re-election bid". Daily Tribune. January 28, 2014. Retrieved February 26, 2014. 
  5. ^ "Which Governors Are Most Vulnerable in 2014?". Five Thirty Eight. April 8, 2013. Retrieved February 26, 2014. 
  6. ^ Woods, Ashley (November 8, 2013). "Michigan Governor Poll Shows Close Race Between Rick Snyder, Mark Schauer".  
  7. ^ "Ratings". Retrieved September 6, 2013. 
  8. ^ Jacobson, Louis (July 18, 2013). "Handicapping the 2013-2014 Governors Races: The Tossups". Governing.com. Retrieved July 25, 2013. 
  9. ^ "Ratings". Retrieved September 6, 2013. 
  10. ^ "Ratings". Retrieved September 6, 2013. 
  11. ^ "Daily Kos Elections gubernatorial race ratings: Initial ratings for 2013-14". Retrieved November 22, 2013. 
  12. ^ Oosting, Jonathan (December 10, 2013). "Poll: Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, Democrat Mark Schauer in close race ahead of 2014".  
  13. ^ Brian Dickerson (August 28, 2014). "Brian Dickerson: Can Schauer avoid the Tomb of the Unknown Front-Runner?".  
  14. ^ a b "Snyder's approval rating gets boost from bankruptcy, Medicaid decisions". July 31, 2013. Retrieved August 1, 2013. 
  15. ^ "Poll says Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder vulnerable in a Republican primary". September 3, 2013. Retrieved September 3, 2013. 
  16. ^ "Snyder losing GOP support since Medicaid expansion". September 4, 2013. Retrieved September 6, 2013. 
  17. ^ "With Medicaid win, did Gov. Rick Snyder lose some Republicans? Tea party talks potential primary". September 5, 2013. Retrieved September 6, 2013. 
  18. ^ "Lt. Gov. Brian Calley on tea party challenger: 'We have a competition for ideas' in Republican Party". August 26, 2013. 
  19. ^ "Snyder gets jump on 2014 election, launches TV, internet campaign ads". September 24, 2013. 
  20. ^ "Tea party leader Wes Nakagiri wants to replace Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Calley in 2014". August 26, 2013. 
  21. ^ "Tim Skubick: Tea Party could be 2014 election headache for Gov. Rick Snyder". August 27, 2013. 
  22. ^ "GOP poll says Livingston County's Nakagiri has shot at state's No. 2 post in 2014". September 5, 2013. Retrieved September 6, 2013. 
  23. ^ "Snyder gets top billing, but Calley in spotlight at Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference". September 21, 2013. 
  24. ^ Egan, Paul (August 23, 2014). "GOP chooses Calley over Nakagiri for lieutenant governor". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved August 23, 2014. 
  25. ^ a b c d "Off the Record - November 29, 2013 - # 4323".  
  26. ^ a b c d Oosting, Jonathan (January 3, 2014). "Michigan Political Points: 'Birther' Democrat goes Republican for primary against Gov. Rick Snyder".  
  27. ^ "'"Former Michigan GOP Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop: 'I'm not running for governor. June 24, 2013. Retrieved June 27, 2013. 
  28. ^ "Tea Party Looking For Its Gubernatorial Candidate". September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 22, 2013.  (subscription required)
  29. ^ "Tea Party Looking For Its Gubernatorial Candidate". September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 22, 2013.  (transcribed from original source)
  30. ^ a b "Official Election Results Primary Election August 5, 2014". Michigan Department of State. Retrieved August 25, 2014. 
  31. ^ a b c "Tim Skubick: Mark Schauer's announcement for governor seals the Democratic field". May 28, 2013. 
  32. ^ "Democrat Mark Schauer to challenge Gov. Rick Snyder in 2014". May 28, 2013. 
  33. ^ "Mark Schauer to announce Oakland County Clerk Lisa Brown as running mate". April 2, 2014. 
  34. ^ "Michigan Democrats rallying behind Mark Schauer for governor, with John Austin offering support". May 8, 2013. Retrieved May 2013. 
  35. ^ Kathleen Gray (March 10, 2013). "Democratic nomination for governor is now Mark Schauer's for the taking".  
  36. ^ "King Leads Schauer for Democratic Nomination". May 29, 2013. Retrieved June 4, 2013. 
  37. ^ Wittrock, Angela (March 20, 2013). "Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero won't run for governor, Senate or Congress in 2014".  
  38. ^ Khalil AlHajal. "Tim Skubick: Mike Duggan's next step? Probably not a gubernatorial race". MLive.com. Retrieved 2014-01-08. 
  39. ^ Chad Selweski (January 17, 2013). "Mark Hackel preparing for marriage, not a run for governor".  
  40. ^ "?". 
  41. ^ Bell, Dawson (November 10, 2012). "Several Democrats may challenge Snyder in 2014".  
  42. ^ Tim Skubick (April 15, 2013). "Tim Skubick: Bart Stupak's out... for now".  
  43. ^ "Gretchen Whitmer says she won't run for governor in 2014".  
  44. ^ "Michigan Committee Statement of Organization". Michigan Secretary of State. May 17, 2014. 
  45. ^ "Libertarians hold party convention in Howell". Lansing State Journal. May 17, 2014. Retrieved July 16, 2014. 
  46. ^ a b "2014 Unofficial Michigan General Candidate Listing". Miboecfr.nictusa.com. 2014-07-22. Retrieved 2014-08-04. 
  47. ^ "Third party gubernatorial candidate Robin Sanders focuses on public safety". Current State on  
  48. ^ "2014 Governors Race Ratings".  
  49. ^ .  
  50. ^ "Governor Ratings".  
  51. ^ "2014 Governor Races".  
  52. ^ "2014 Governor Ratings".  
  53. ^ "2014 Governor Races".  
  54. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor".  
  55. ^ "Stephen Henderson: End the debate about debates in Michigan". Freep.com. September 7, 2014. Retrieved September 20, 2014. 
  56. ^ "Michigan Governors Debate - Video - C-SPAN.org". C-SPAN.org. Retrieved November 16, 2014. 
  57. ^ http://www.michmab.com/tabid/97/mid/663/newsid663/190/dnnprintmode/true/Default.aspx?SkinSrc=%5BG%5DSkins%2F_default%2FNo+Skin&ContainerSrc=%5BG%5DContainers%2F_default%2FNo+Container
  58. ^ "2014 Gubernatorial Town Hall". YouTube. Retrieved November 16, 2014. 
  59. ^ "Michigan debate: Gov. Rick Snyder, Mark Schauer spar over tax policy and education funding". MLive.com. Retrieved November 16, 2014. 
  60. ^ Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  61. ^ Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  62. ^ Mary Buzuma (L) 3%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 0%
  63. ^ Mary Buzuma (L) 2%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 0.4%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  64. ^ Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1.4%
  65. ^ Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  66. ^ Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 2%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  67. ^ Mary Buzuma (L) 1.7%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1.2%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 0.5%
  68. ^ Mary Buzuma (L) 2%, Paul Homeniuk (G) <1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  69. ^ Mary Buzuma (L) 2%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  70. ^ Mary Buzuma (L) 4%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  71. ^ Mary Buzuma (L) 1.8%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1.2%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 0.8%
  72. ^ Mary Buzuma (L) 3%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  73. ^ "Election Results - General Election - November 4, 2014". Michigan Department of State. November 24, 2014. Retrieved November 29, 2014. 

External links

  • Michigan gubernatorial election, 2014 at Ballotpedia
  • Campaign contributions at FollowTheMoney.org
Official campaign websites
  • Mark McFarlin for Governor
  • Robin Sanders for Governor
  • Mark Schauer for Governor
  • Rick Snyder for Governor incumbent
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