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Republic of China municipal elections, 2010

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Republic of China municipal elections, 2010

Republic of China (Taiwan) municipal election, 2010

27 November 2010

5 Municipal Mayoral, 314 Municipal Councilmen, 3,757 Ward Chiefs (seats)
  First party Second party
 
Leader Ma Ying-jeou Tsai Ing-wen
Party Kuomintang Democratic Progressive
Seats won 3 (Municipal Mayors)
130 (Municipal Councilmen)
1,194 (Ward Chiefs)
2 (Municipal Mayors)
130 (Municipal Councilmen)
220 (Ward Chiefs)
Popular vote 2,369,052 (Municipal Mayors)
2,890,154 (Municipal Councilmen)
2,344,255 (Ward Chiefs)
3,772,373 (Municipal Mayors)
2,643,828 (Municipal Councilmen)
476,088 (Ward Chiefs)
Percentage 44.54% (Municipal Mayors)
38.63% (Municipal Councilmen)
32.99% (Ward Chiefs)
49.87% (Municipal Mayors)
35.34% (Municipal Councilmen)
6.7% (Ward Chiefs)

The results of the municipal mayoral elections:
      Kuomintang
      Democratic Progressive Party
      Parts of Taiwan which did not take part in this election.

The Republic of China municipal elections of 2010, commonly known as the Taiwan metropolitan elections of 2010 (Chinese: 2010年臺灣五都選舉), was held on Saturday, November 27, 2010, to elect the municipal mayors, municipal councilmen, and ward chiefs of the five current and newly created special-municipalities (Kaohsiung, New Taipei, Taichung, Tainan, and Taipei) administered directly under the central government of the Republic of China.[1] Mayoral candidates for the Kuomintang were elected in New Taipei, Taipei, and Taichung, while candidates for the Democratic Progressive Party were elected in Kaohsiung and Tainan. On the eve of the election, Sean Lien, son of former Vice President of the Republic of China Chan Lien, was shot in face when he was campaigning for a Kuomintang New Taipei councillor candidate.

Taipei

Electoral background

Polling

Poll source Date of completion Hau Lung-pin Su Tseng-chang Undecided
TVBS May 26, 2010 46% 41% 14%
Era Television June 11, 2010 39.3% 41.0% 19.6%
Era Television June 22, 2010 41.8% 37.7% 20.5%
China Times July 15, 2010 42.9% 38.5% 18.7%
TVBS July 20, 2010 44% 41% 15%
I-tel Research August 19, 2010 58.33% 41.67%
TVBS August 25, 2010 45% 42% 12%
Apple Daily August 29, 2010 43.12% 44.68% 12.20%
I-tel Research September 1, 2010 44.55% 55.45%
TVBS September 8, 2010 42% 45% 13%
China Times September 17, 2010 39.0% 41.2% 19.8%
I-tel Research September 20, 2010 52.94% 47.06%
United Daily News September 26, 2010 41% 33% 26%
Apple Daily October 3, 2010 47.52% 35.64% 16.84%
TVBS October 6, 2010 43% 42% 15%
Shih Hsin University October 12, 2010 33.2% 30.1% 36.7%
Liberty Times October 21, 2010 36.84% 37.45% 25.71%
United Daily News October 24, 2010 48% 37% 15%
TVBS October 27, 2010 46% 40% 14%
China Times November 3, 2010 42.7% 42.1% 15.2%
Wealth Magazine November 7, 2010 37.2% 38.5% 24.3%
Shih Hsin University November 8, 2010 33.4% 33.0% 33.6%
Democratic Progressive Party November 10, 2010 39.3% 40.8% 19.9%
TVBS November 11, 2010 49% 39% 12%
China Times November 14, 2010 47.3% 39.6% 13.2%

Predictions

Source Date of release Voter turnout Hau Lung-pin Su Tseng-chang
TVBS August 25, 2010 66% 51% 49%
TVBS September 8, 2010 67% 48% 52%
I-tel Research October 4, 2010 50.59% 49.41%
United Daily News October 24, 2010 49% 51%
TVBS October 27, 2010 68% 50.3% 49.7%
TVBS November 11, 2010 68% 53% 47%
Global Views November 27, 2010 68% 50.6% 48.5%

Results

Municipal Mayoral Election

Party # Candidate Votes Percentage
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) 2 Hau Lung-pin (郝龍斌) 797,865 55.65%
Democratic Progressive Party 5 Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) 628,129 43.81%
Independent 4 Francis Wu (吳武明) 3,672 0.26%
Independent 3 Helen Hsiao (蕭淑華) 2,238 0.16%
Independent 1 Wu Yen-cheng (吳炎成) 1,832 0.13%
Total 1,433,736 100.00%
Voter turnout 70.65%

Municipal Councilmen Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) 637,255 44.93% 31
Democratic Progressive Party 516,140 36.39% 23
New Party 74,116 5.23% 3
People First Party 65,550 4.62% 2
Taiwan Solidarity Union 36,302 2.56% 1
Green Party Taiwan 16,329 1.15% 0
Taiwan Constitution Association 188 0.01% 0
Independent 72,455 5.11% 2
Total 1,418,335 100.00% 62
Voter turnout 70.65%

Ward Chiefs Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) 648,243 48.63% 247
Democratic Progressive Party 105,465 7.91% 41
Green Party Taiwan 964 0.07% 0
Independent 578,227 43.38% 168
Total 1,332,899 100.00% 456
Voter turnout 70.72%

New Taipei

Electoral background

Polling

Poll source Date of completion Eric Chu Li-luan Tsai Ing-wen Undecided
China Times May 24, 2010 33.0% 28.2% 38.7%
TVBS May 24, 2010 43% 44% 14%
TVBS July 16, 2010 46% 40% 14%
China Times July 17, 2010 39.2% 39.8% 21.0%
Era Television July 21, 2010 41.1% 36.2% 22.7%
Democratic Progressive Party August 19, 2010 44.2% 44.1% 11.7%
TVBS August 23, 2010 47% 40% 13%
I-tel Research August 23, 2010 45% 55%
I-tel Research September 7, 2010 43.9% 56.1%
Apple Daily September 11, 2010 47.04% 39.08% 13.88%
China Times September 17, 2010 42.1% 38.1% 19.8%
Democratic Progressive Party September 23, 2010 44.4% 43.5% 12.1%
United Daily News September 27, 2010 45% 28% 26%
I-tel Research September 28, 2010 55.63% 44.38%
Apple Daily October 4, 2010 48.49% 35.13% 16.38%
TVBS October 5, 2010 47% 35% 17%
Democratic Progressive Party October 7, 2010 43.1% 43.5% 13.4%
Citizen's Association of Taiwan October 8, 2010 37.9% 35.3% 26.8%
Shih Hsin University October 10, 2010 35.3% 31.3% 33.4%
China Times October 17, 2010 43% 34% 23%
Liberty Times October 19, 2010 35.81% 34.00% 30.19%
United Daily News October 27, 2010 45% 37% 18%
TVBS October 29, 2010 44% 40% 16%
China Times November 2, 2010 44% 38% 18%
Liberty Times November 2, 2010 35.82% 38.49% 25.69%
Wealth Magazine November 5, 2010 39.3% 34.3% 26.4%
Decision Making Research November 6, 2010 39.9% 37.2% 22.9%
Shih Hsin University November 7, 2010 33.5% 30.4% 36.1%
China Times November 8, 2010 45.6% 41.6% 12.8%
TVBS November 9, 2010 45% 38% 17%
Democratic Progressive Party November 12, 2010 40.3% 39.1% 20.6%
Liberty Times November 12, 2010 38.81% 39.29% 21.90%

Predictions

Source Date of release Voter turnout Eric Chu Li-luan Tsai Ing-wen
TVBS August 23, 2010 69% 53% 47%
I-tel Research October 4, 2010 49.56% 50.44%
United Daily News October 27, 2010 55% 45%
TVBS October 29, 2010 71% 51% 49%
TVBS November 9, 2010 71% 51% 49%
Global Views November 27, 2010 69.1% 48.9% 51.1%

Results

Municipal Mayoral Election

Party # Candidate Votes Percentage
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) 1 Eric Chu Li-luan (朱立倫) 1,115,536 52.61%
Democratic Progressive Party 2 Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) 1,004,900 47.39%
Total 2,120,436 100.00%
Voter turnout 71.25%

Municipal Councilmen Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) 831,590 39.74% 30
Democratic Progressive Party 724,807 34.64% 28
People First Party 40,755 1.95% 0
New Party 18,807 0.90% 0
Taiwan Solidarity Union 33,789 1.61% 0
Green Party Taiwan 8,321 0.40% 0
Independent 434,368 20.76% 8
Total 2,092,437 100.00% 66
Voter turnout 71.29%

Ward Chiefs Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) 645,761 32.68% 354
Democratic Progressive Party 75,790 3.84% 25
Chinese Reunification Party 1,912 0.10% 1
People First Party 208 0.01% 0
Independent 1,252,189 63.37% 652
Total 1,975,860 100.00% 1,032
Voter turnout 71.45%

Taichung

Electoral background


The newly created central municipality Taichung will be formed from the merging and elevation of Taichung County and Taichung City, both of which are currently county-level divisions of Taiwan. At present, both Taichung County and Taichung are under the administration of the Kuomintang, with the incumbent Taichung County Magistrate being Huang Chung-sheng and the incumbent Taichung City Mayor being Jason Hu Chih-chiang. The electoral composition of Taichung County is relatively balanced with only a slight overall inclination towards the Pan-Blue political camp, whereas Taichung City is commonly considered to be mildly leaning towards the Pan-Blue political camp. It is estimated that in Taichung County, approximately 52% of voters who identify themselves with political inclination support the Pan-Blue Coalition, whilst 48% support the Pan-Green Coalition.[5] In Taichung City, the proportion of Pan-Blue to Pan-Green supporters within voters who identify themselves with political inclination is approximately 55% to 45%.[5]

Polling

Poll source Date of completion Jason Hu Chih-chiang Su Jia-chyuan Undecided
Apple Daily May 24, 2010 53.40% 35.39% 11.21%
TVBS May 25, 2010 57% 26% 17%
United Daily News June 4, 2010 46% 24% 30%
Liberty Times June 9, 2010 35.59% 28.71% 29.67%
Era Television July 6, 2010 44.6% 32.5% 22.9%
TVBS July 2, 20102 51% 31% 19%
Era Television July 27, 2010 43.5% 30.7% 25.8%
I-tel Research August 26, 2010 62% 38%
TVBS August 27, 2010 51% 30% 19%
I-tel Research September 9, 2010 52.25% 47.75%
Democratic Progressive Party September 15, 2010 45% 36% 19%
China Times September 19, 2010 41% 35% 25%
Apple Daily September 26, 2010 51.82% 36.26% 11.92%
United Daily News September 28, 2010 43% 25% 29%
Democratic Progressive Party September 29, 2010 46.4% 33.3% 20.3%
I-tel Research September 29, 2010 59.57% 40.43%
TVBS October 12, 2010 47% 34% 18%
Shih Hsin University October 12, 2010 37.9% 22.2% 39.9%
Democratic Progressive Party October 13, 2010 45.7% 35.3% 19.0%
United Daily News October 27, 2010 49% 31% 20%
Democratic Progressive Party October 27, 2010 40.5% 35.4% 24.1%
China Times October 31, 2010 43% 33% 23%
Liberty Times November 5, 2010 34.85% 30.04% 35.11%
Democratic Progressive Party November 6, 2010 40.1% 35.1% 24.8%
Shih Hsin University November 9, 2010 36.3% 26.5% 37.2%
China Times November 12, 2010 47.1% 40.1% 12.8%
Beterly Research November 15, 2010 28.9% 29.2% 41.9%

Predictions

Source Date of release Voter turnout Jason Hu Chih-chiang Su Jia-chyuan
TVBS August 27, 2010 65% 58% 42%
I-tel Research October 4, 2010 57.28% 42.72%
United Daily News October 27, 2010 56% 44%
Global Views November 27, 2010 64.1% 50.6% 49.4%

Results

Municipal Mayoral Election

Party # Candidate Votes Percentage
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) 2 Jason Hu Chih-chiang (胡志強) 730,284 51.12%
Democratic Progressive Party 1 Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) 698,358 48.88%
Total 1,428,642 100.00%
Voter turnout 73.15%

Municipal Councilmen Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) 531,365 37.64% 27
Democratic Progressive Party 460,345 32.61% 24
Taiwan Solidarity Union 24,396 1.73% 1
People First Party 9,247 0.66% 1
Independent 386,217 27.36% 10
Total 1,411,570 100.00% 63
Voter turnout 73.21%

Ward Chiefs Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) 465,827 34.40% 227
Democratic Progressive Party 54,623 4.03% 18
Independent 833,529 61.56% 379
Total 1,353,979 100.00% 624
Voter turnout 73.31%

Tainan

Electoral background


The newly created central municipality Tainan will be formed from the merging and elevation of Tainan County and Tainan City, both of which are currently county-level divisions of Taiwan. The incumbent Tainan County Magistrate Su Huan-chih and the incumbent Tainan City Mayor being Hsu Tain-tsair are both members of the Democratic Progressive Party. Having been under the administration of the Democratic Progressive Party for the past seventeen and thirteen years respectively, both Tainan County and Tainan City are commonly considered to be strongholds of the Pan-Green political camp.[7] It is estimated that in both the county and the city, approximately 60% of voters who identify themselves with political inclination support the Pan-Green Coalition, whilst 40% support the Pan-Blue Coalition.[5]

Polling

Poll source Date of completion William Lai Ching-te Kuo Tien-tsai Undecided
TVBS May 20, 2010 59% 22% 19%
TVBS July 27, 2010 53% 25% 22%
Era Television August 17, 2010 47.7% 18.9% 33.4%
I-tel Research August 27, 2010 67.21% 32.79%
TVBS August 31, 2010 53% 25% 21%
I-tel Research September 13, 2010 75.42% 24.58%
China Times September 18, 2010 52% 21% 27%
United Daily News September 29, 2010 44% 20% 33%
I-tel Research September 30, 2010 66.43% 33.57%
TVBS October 13, 2010 50% 28% 22%
Shih Hsin University October 16, 2010 36.2% 23.3% 40.5%
Liberty Times October 23, 2010 44.07% 16.73% 39.2%
United Daily News October 29, 2010 48% 24% 28%
China Times October 29, 2010 52% 23% 25%
TVBS November 4, 2010 47% 34% 18%
Shih Hsin University November 13, 2010 37.7% 22.0% 40.3%
Democratic Progressive Party November 13, 2010 51.3% 25.9% 22.8%

Predictions

Source Date of release Voter turnout William Lai Ching-te Kuo Tien-tsai
TVBS August 31, 2010 67% 64% 36%
I-tel Research October 4, 2010 66.79% 33.21%
United Daily News October 29, 2010 58% 42%
TVBS November 4, 2010 71% 56% 44%
Global Views November 27, 2010 61.7% 62.5% 37.5%

Results

Municipal Mayoral Election

Party # Candidate Votes Percentage
Democratic Progressive Party 2 William Lai Ching-te (賴清德) 619,897 60.41%
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) 1 Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財) 406,196 39.59%
Total 1,026,093 100.00%
Voter turnout 71.01%

Municipal Councilmen Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Democratic Progressive Party 378,139 37.01% 27
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) 288,861 28.27% 13
People First Party 5,774 0.57% 0
New Party 810 0.08% 0
Taiwan Solidarity Union 4,701 0.46% 0
Taiwan Public Opinion Party 138 0.01% 0
Independent 343,300 33.60% 17
Total 1,021,723 100.00% 57
Voter turnout 71.09%

Ward Chiefs Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) 191,288 19.56% 124
Democratic Progressive Party 69,780 7.13% 40
Independent 717,077 73.31% 588
Total 978,145 100.00% 752
Voter turnout 71.17%

Kaohsiung

Electoral background


The newly created central municipality Kaohsiung will be formed from the merging of Kaohsiung County and the current central municipality Kaohsiung City. The incumbent Kaohsiung Municipal Mayor Chen Chu and the incumbent Kaohsiung County Magistrate Yang Chiu-hsing are both members of the Democratic Progressive Party. Having been under the administration of the Democratic Progressive Party for the past twelve years, the electoral composition of Kaohsiung City has a slight overall inclination towards the Pan-Green political camp.[8] On the other hand, Kaohsiung County has been under the control of Tangwai members and the Democratic Progressive Party for 25 years, is widely considered to be solidly in the Pan-Green political camp.[6][7] It is estimated that in Kaohsiung County, approximately 60% of voters who identify themselves with political inclination support the Pan-Green Coalition, whilst 40% support the Pan-Blue Coalition.[5]

Polling

Poll source Date of completion Chen Chu  Yang Chiu-hsing Huang Chao-shun Undecided
TVBS May 27, 2010 62% 26% 12%
Era Television July 13, 2010 45.4% 25.4% 11.7% 17.5%
TVBS July 29, 2010 43% 26% 16% 15%
Apple Daily August 3, 2010 43.75% 27.18% 20.49% 8.58%
Era Television August 3, 2010 43.6% 23.8% 11.5% 21.2%
United Daily News August 4, 2010 44% 23% 13% 19%
Democratic Progressive Party August 9, 2010 53.7% 22.6% 15.3% 8.4%
TVBS August 10, 2010 46% 28% 14% 12%
I-tel Research August 16, 2010 54.35% 36.96% 8.70%
Liberty Times August 18, 2010 46% 19% 7% 28%
I-tel Research August 31, 2010 48.36% 20.49% 31.15%
TVBS September 2, 2010 46% 22% 16% 16%
I-tel Research September 17, 2010 56.45% 25.81% 17.74%
China Times September 18, 2010 45.5% 20.2% 14.9% 19.3%
Apple Daily September 23, 2010 36.39% 24.60% 18.05% 20.96%
United Daily News September 26, 2010 37% 24% 14% 23%
Democratic Progressive Party September 27, 2010 46.0% 26.3% 12.4% 15.3%
TVBS September 28, 2010 42% 21% 18% 19%
The Commons Daily September 29, 2010 31.7% 18.8% 7.3% 42.4%
Apple Daily September 29, 2010 38.30% 22.48% 19.61% 19.61%
China Times September 30, 2010 42.8% 21.1% 13.8% 22.3%
Democratic Progressive Party October 12, 2010 47.0% 21.7% 14.8% 16.5%
Shih Hsin University October 14, 2010 31.7% 20.6% 15.2% 32.5%
TVBS October 25, 2010 43% 26% 16% 15%
China Times October 28, 2010 47.1% 23.4% 10.3% 19.2%
Liberty Times October 30, 2010 43.27% 18.52% 7.8% 30.41%
United Daily News October 31, 2010 39% 29% 16% 16%
TVBS November 7, 2010 41% 28% 16% 15%
Democratic Progressive Party November 9, 2010 47.2% 25.6% 12.5% 14.7%
Shih Hsin University November 11, 2010 34.1% 18.2% 15.3% 32.4%
Liberty Times November 15, 2010 45.03% 16.76% 11.51% 26.37%
China Times November 15, 2010 46.0% 24.0% 13.7% 16.3%

Predictions

Source Date of release Voter turnout Chen Chu  Yang Chiu-hsing Huang Chao-shun
TVBS September 2, 2010 72% 52% 26% 22%
I-tel Research October 4, 2010 52.74% 25.34% 21.92%
TVBS October 25, 2010 74% 46% 31% 23%
United Daily News October 31, 2010 44% 35% 21%
TVBS November 7, 2010 73% 45% 33% 21%
Kuomintang November 15, 2010 41.52% 27.68% 30.80%
Global Views November 27, 2010 69.7% 55.6% 39.2% 5.2%

Results

Municipal Mayoral Election

Party # Candidate Votes Percentage
Democratic Progressive Party 3 Chen Chu (陳菊) 821,089 52.80%
Independent 1 Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興) 414,950 26.68%
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) 2 Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順) 319,171 20.52%
Total 1,555,210 100.00%
Voter turnout 72.52%

Municipal Councilmen Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) 601,083 39.08% 29
Democratic Progressive Party 564,397 36.70% 28
People First Party 30,355 1.97% 1
New Party 1,317 0.09% 0
Taiwan Solidarity Union 27,171 1.77% 0
Independent 313,586 20.39% 8
Total 1,537,889 100.00% 66
Voter turnout 72.60%

Ward Chiefs Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) 393,136 26.81% 242
Democratic Progressive Party 170,430 11.62% 96
Taiwan Solidarity Union 85 0.01% 0
Independent 902,836 61.56% 555
Total 1,466,487 100.00% 893
Voter turnout 72.72%

Implications and reactions

A forum entitled "Policy Direction after Five Metropolitan Elections in Taiwan", organized by the Institute for National Policy Research on Monday, November 29, 2010, concluded that although the Kuomintang won three of the five mayoral positions, in terms of the overall votes won, the real victor was in fact the Democratic Progressive Party.[9]

Raymond Burghardt, chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan commented that "the way both parties handled that [the shooting which wounded Sean Lien, son of former vice-president Lien Chan] was also a sign of political maturity." [10]

Taiwanese political scientist Hsu Yung-Ming believed that the elections signalled the era of the new "Four Heavenly Kings" Tsai Ing-wen, Chen Chu, William Lai and Su Jia-chyuan within the Democratic Progressive Party.[11]

See also

References

  1. ^ Three-in-one municipal elections set for Nov. 27, Taiwan Today, 7 April 2010
  2. ^ a b 土地面積、村里鄰、戶數暨現住人口數統計表,中華民國內政部統計資訊網
  3. ^ 台北市長的好處,中時電子報
  4. ^ 中評: 蘇郝對決牽動2012政治版圖,中評社台北,2010年3月4日
  5. ^ a b c d e 《台灣與大陸政治評論集》,林清察,2006年
  6. ^ a b 《重修臺灣省通志》<卷八.職官志第一冊-文職表篇>,劉寧顏,臺灣省文獻委員會,1993年
  7. ^ a b c 歷屆縣市長選舉結果,聯合新聞網
  8. ^ 中選會資料庫網站,中央選舉委員會
  9. ^ [Who Will Win the 2012 Presidential Elections in Taiwan?], China Times, Retrieved on 2010-12-18.
  10. ^ American Free Press. "US hails Taiwan's key mayoral elections". Retrieved 2010 12-12.
  11. ^ "Chinareviewnews.com." 民進黨出現新四大天王 兩岸政策或放寬. Retrieved on 2010-12-11.
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