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Poland and the euro

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Poland and the euro

Eurozone participation
  7 European Union member states not in ERM II but obliged to join once convergence criteria are met (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden)
  1 European Union member state in ERM II, with an opt-out (Denmark)
  1 European Union member state not in ERM II, with an opt-out (United Kingdom)
  4 non-European Union member states using the euro with a monetary agreement (Andorra, Monaco, San Marino and Vatican City)
  2 non-European Union member states using the euro unilaterally (Kosovo and Montenegro)

Poland does not use the euro as its currency. However, under the terms of their Treaty of Accession with the European Union, all new Member States "shall participate in the Economic and Monetary Union from the date of accession as a Member State with a derogation", which means that Poland is obliged to replace its currency, the złoty, with the euro eventually.

There is no target date for Polish euro adoption, and no fixed date for when the country will join ERM-II (the fifth euro convergence criterion). The country's Deputy Prime Minister Janusz Piechociński has stated that Poland will not join the Euro until at least 2020.[1]

Euro adoption will require the approval of at least two thirds of the Sejm to make a constitutional amendment changing the official currency from the złoty to the euro.[2] The opposition Law and Justice Party opposes euro adoption and the governing parties do not have enough seats in the Sejm to make the required constitutional amendment.[3][4] Former PM Donald Tusk has said that he may agree to a referendum on euro participation in order to gain their support for a constitutional amendment. Public opinion is against participation according to polls, with more than 70 percent believing that adoption of the euro would be bad for the Polish economy according to one poll from September 2012.[5]

There is not yet any official information on the design process for the Polish national sides of the euro coins.

Contents

  • Political preparations for euro adoption 1
  • Public opinion 2
  • Convergence criteria 3
  • See also 4
  • References 5

Political preparations for euro adoption

The euro adoption process in Poland is regulated by the Strategic Framework for National Euro Changeover Plan (adopted by the Council of Ministers in 2010) and the National Euro Changeover Plan (approved in 2011 by the Committee for European Affairs). The plan comprises an economic impact assessment of the euro adoption, followed by a chapter on the measures needed to ensure Polish compliance with the "Maastricht convergence criteria", and finally a roadmap for the euro changeover process.

On 10 September 2008, speaking at the launch of an economic forum in a Polish resort of Ludwik Kotecki said the year 2015 is more likely than 2014, however he declined to specify the official target date.[14]

In the years following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, economic statistics showed that the devaluation of its floating currency the złoty led Polish products to became more competitively priced to foreign buyers, and because of that Poland had a higher economic GDP growth in subsequent years than if the country had been a part of the eurozone. The Polish government advocated in 2012 that it would only be wise for Poland to join the eurozone once the euro crisis had ended, based on the argument that delaying their accession would minimise the risk for Poland to become one of the net financial creditors to other eurozone countries in financial difficulties.[15]

In December 2011 Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski said that Poland aimed to adopt the euro on 1 January 2016, but only if "the eurozone is reformed by then, and the entrance is beneficial to us."[16] The current Polish government plans to comply with all the Euro convergence criteria by 2015.[15] In autumn 2012 the Monetary Policy Council of the Polish National Bank published its official monetary guidelines for 2013, confirming earlier political statements that Poland should only join the ERM-II once the existing eurozone countries have overcome the current sovereign-debt crisis, to maximise the benefits of monetary integration and minimise associated costs.[17] The governor of the National Bank, Marek Belka, has stated that the euro won't be adopted before the end of his term in 2016.[15]

In late 2012, Tusk announced that he planned to launch a "national debate" on euro adoption the following spring, and in December 2012 Polish Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski said that his country should strive to adopt the euro as soon as possible. On 21 December 2012 it was announced by the Ministry of Finance that they planned to update the country's National Euro Changeover Plan in 2013, mainly due to the recent institutional changes in the eurozone which require additional considerations. One of the key details investigated as part of the work to update the plan is whether or not an amendment to Article 227 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland[18] will need to be passed to change the currency from the Złoty to the euro and to enact changes to the central bank.[19][20] The opposition Law and Justice Party opposes euro adoption and the governing parties do not have enough seats in the Sejm to make the required constitutional amendment.[3][4] The Polish Finance Minister emphasised that the government's support for euro adoption remained unchanged as a strategic goal, and would not be changed in the updated plan.[21] At the same time, however, recent turbulences in the EU and in the world have caused the government to adopt a kind of additional criterion for euro adoption, namely the stabilization of the euro area.[22]

In January 2013, Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski stated that a decision on euro adoption should not be made until after parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for 2015, but that in the meantime the country should try to comply with the convergence criteria.[3] In February 2013, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of the Law and Justice Party stated that "I do not foresee any moment when the adoption of the euro would be advantageous for us" and called for a referendum on euro adoption.[23] Rostowski has stated that Poland won't set a target date for the switch since the country first needs to carry out reforms to prepare itself.[24] In March 2013, Tusk said for the first time that he would be open to considering a referendum on euro participation - decided by simple majority - provided that it was part of a package in which the parliament first approved the necessary constitutional amendment to adopt the euro subject to approval in a referendum.[25] In April 2013 Marek Belka, head of National Bank of Poland, said that Poland should demand to be permitted to adopt the euro without first joining the ERM-II due to concerns over currency speculation.[26] Following the 2014 Russian military intervention in Ukraine, Belka said that Poland needed to reevaluate its reluctance to join the eurozone.[27][28] In June 2014, a joint statement by the finance minister, central bank chief and president of Poland stated that Poland should begin a debate shortly after the 2015 parliamentary elections about when to adopt the euro,[29] leading to a roadmap decision that might even include identification of a target date.[30]

In October 2014, the Deputy Prime Minister Janusz Piechociński suggested that Poland should join the Eurozone in 2020 at the earliest.[31] The newly elect Prime Minister, Ewa Kopacz, having replaced Donald Tusk for the final year of the government's term, at the same time commented: "Before answering the question which target date should be set for the euro changeover, we must ask another: What is the situation of the eurozone and where are they going? If the eurozone will strengthen, then Poland should fulfil all the criteria for inclusion, which would in any case be good for the economy."[32] The PM hereby referred to the earlier political decision of first letting the National Coordination Committee for Euro Changeover complete its update of the changeover plan, which await a prior establishment of the banking union, before setting a target date for euro adoption.[nb 1] More recently, Krzysztof Szczerski, the foreign affairs advisor to Poland's new President Andrzej Duda, said in July 2015 that "Poles should decide in a referendum whether they want to embrace the euro".[34]

In the 2015 Polish parliamentary election, the winning party was eurosceptic Law and Justice Party, which opposes euro adoption.

Public opinion

In 2010, the eurozone's debt crisis caused Poles' interest to cool, with nearly half of the population opposed to entry.[35] In March 2011, research by CBOS showed that 60% of Poles were against adopting the euro while 32% were supportive, a decrease from 41% in April 2010.[36] Surveys in the first half of 2012 indicated that 60% of Poles were opposed to adopting the common currency.[37] Public support for the euro continued to fall, reaching record lows in the CBOS polls from July 2012, where only 25% of those polled supported a switch to the euro.[38] However, polls conducted by TNS Polska throughout 2012–2015 have consistently shown support for eventually adopting the euro, though that support depends on the target date (as revealed by the detailed data in the table below).

Date YES NO Undecided Number of participants Held by Ref
10-13 May 2012 51%
(13% by the end of 2014)
(38% after 2014)
28% 21% 1000 TNS Polska [39]
6-11 September 2013 49%
(11% within 5yr)
(18% in 6-10yr)
(20% later than 10yr)
40% 11% 1000 TNS Polska [40]
6-11 December 2013 45%
(12% within 5yr)
(16% in 6-10yr)
(17% later than 10yr)
40% 15% 1000 TNS Polska [41]
7-12 March 2014 44%
(14% within 5yr)
(14% in 6-10yr)
(16% later than 10yr)
42% 14% 1000 TNS Polska [42]
6-11 June 2014 46%
(14% within 5yr)
(13% in 6-10yr)
(19% later than 10yr)
42% 12% ? TNS Polska [43]
5-10 September 2014 45%
(14% within 5yr)
(14% in 6-10yr)
(17% later than 10yr)
42% 13% 1000 TNS Polska [44]
5-10 December 2014 49%
(16% within 5yr)
(15% in 6-10yr)
(18% later than 10yr)
40% 11% 1000 TNS Polska [45]
13-18 March 2015 44%
(13% within 5yr)
(12% in 6-10yr)
(19% later than 10yr)
41% 15% 1000 TNS Polska [46]
12-17 June 2015 46%
(15% within 5yr)
(14% in 6-10yr)
(17% later than 10yr)
41% 13% 1015 TNS Polska [47]

The adoption support found by the 2012-15 surveys in the above table, was detected while a majority of Poles in the same surveys said they expected the euro adoption would negatively impact the Polish economy. In example, 58% of the surveyed in May 2012 had this belief.[48] A later poll for the German Marshall Fund published in September 2012, even found 71% of Poles believed an immediate switch to the euro would be bad for the Polish economy.[5]

According to a standard eurobarometer poll in April 2015, 44% of Polish people were in favour of introducing the euro (a decrease of 1% from 2014) while 53% were opposed (no change from 2014).[49][50] The eurobarometer poll does not take adoption timing issues into concern, meaning that this result can not be directly compared to the above results of the TNS Polska surveys, as a percentage of those being surveyed might respond with a more negative bias (assuming the survey question is about if they favour adoption now" rather than favour "adoption either now or at a later point of time perceived as being more optimal for their country").

Convergence criteria

The Maastricht Treaty originally required that all members of the European Union join the euro once certain economic criteria are met. By April 2014, Poland met 3 out of the 5 criteria.

Convergence criteria
Assessment month Country HICP inflation rate[51][nb 2] Excessive deficit procedure[52] Exchange rate Long-term interest rate[53][nb 3] Compatibility of legislation
Budget deficit to GDP[54] Debt-to-GDP ratio ERM II member[55] Change in rate[56][57][nb 4]
2012 ECB Report[nb 5] Reference values Max. 3.1%[nb 6]
(as of 31 Mar 2012)
None open (as of 31 March 2012) Min. 2 years
(as of 31 Mar 2012)
Max. ±15%[nb 7]
(for 2011)
Max. 5.80%[nb 8]
(as of 31 Mar 2012)
Yes[59]
(as of 31 Mar 2012)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2011)[60]
Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2011)[60]
 Poland 4.0% Open No -3.2% 5.77% No
5.1% 56.3%
2013 ECB Report[nb 9] Reference values Max. 2.7%[nb 10]
(as of 30 Apr 2013)
None open (as of 30 Apr 2013) Min. 2 years
(as of 30 Apr 2013)
Max. ±15%[nb 7]
(for 2012)
Max. 5.5%[nb 10]
(as of 30 Apr 2013)
Yes[62]
(as of 30 Apr 2013)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2012)[63]
Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2012)[63]
 Poland 2.7% Open No -1.6% 4.44% Unknown
3.9% 55.6%
2014 ECB Report[nb 11] Reference values Max. 1.7%[nb 12]
(as of 30 Apr 2014)
None open (as of 30 Apr 2014) Min. 2 years
(as of 30 Apr 2014)
Max. ±15%[nb 7]
(for 2013)
Max. 6.2%[nb 12]
(as of 30 Apr 2014)
Yes[65]
(as of 30 Apr 2014)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2013)[66]
Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2013)[66]
 Poland 0.6% Open No -0.3% 4.19% No
4.3% 57.0%


  Criterion fulfilled
  Criterion potentially fulfilled: If the budget deficit exceeds the 3% limit, but is "close" to this value (the European Commission has deemed 3.5% to be close by in the past),[67] then the criteria can still potentially be fulfilled if either the deficits in the previous two years are significantly declining towards the 3% limit, or if the excessive deficit is the result of exceptional circumstances which are temporary in nature (i.e. one-off expenditures triggered by a significant economic downturn, or by the implementation of economic reforms that are expected to deliver a significant positive impact on the government's future fiscal budgets). However, even if such "special circumstances" are found to exist, additional criteria must also be met to comply with the fiscal budget criterion.[68][69] Additionally, if the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60% but is "sufficiently diminishing and approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace" it can be deemed to be in compliance.[70]
  Criterion not fulfilled


Notes
  1. ^ Cite from the 2014 Polish convergence report: Due to the significant reform agenda in the European Union and in the euro area, the current objective is to update the National Euro Changeover Plan with reference to the impact of those changes on Poland’s euro adoption strategy. The date of completion of the document is conditional on the adoption of binding solutions on the EU forum concerning the key institutional changes, in particular, those referring to the banking union. The outcome of these changes determines the area of the necessary institutional and legal adjustments as well as the national balance of costs and benefits arising from introduction of the common currency.[33]
  2. ^ The 12-months average for the annual HICP inflation rate must be no more than 1.5% larger than the unweighted arithmetic average of the similar HICP inflation rates in the 3 EU member states with the lowest HICP inflation. If any of these 3 states have a HICP rate significantly below the similarly averaged HICP rate for the eurozone (which according to ECB practice means more than 2% below), and if this low HICP rate has been primarily caused by exceptional circumstances (i.e. severe wage cuts or a strong recession), then such a state is not included in the calculation of the reference value and is replaced by the EU state with the fourth lowest HICP rate.
  3. ^ The annual average for the yield of 10-year government bonds must be no more than 2.0% larger than the unweighted arithmetic average of the bond yields in the 3 EU member states with the lowest HICP inflation. If any of these states have bond yields which are significantly larger than the similarly averaged yield for the eurozone (which according to previous ECB reports means more than 2% above) and at the same time does not have complete funding access to financial markets (which is the case for as long as a government receives bailout funds), then such a state is not be included in the calculation of the reference value.
  4. ^ The change in the annual average exchange rate against the euro.
  5. ^ Reference values from the ECB convergence report of May 2012.[58]
  6. ^ Sweden, Ireland and Slovenia were the reference states.[58]
  7. ^ a b c The maximum allowed change in rate is ± 2.25% for Denmark.
  8. ^ Sweden and Slovenia were the reference states, with Ireland excluded as an outlier.[58]
  9. ^ Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2013.[61]
  10. ^ a b Sweden, Latvia and Ireland were the reference states.[61]
  11. ^ Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2014.[64]
  12. ^ a b Latvia, Portugal and Ireland were the reference states.[64]

See also

References

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  2. ^ Odpowiedź na interpelację w sprawie wprowadzenia unijnej waluty bez zmiany konstytucji
  3. ^ a b c "Poland president says no euro entry decision before 2015 ballots".  
  4. ^ a b Puhl, Jan (6 February 2013). "Core or Periphery?: Poland's Battle Over Embracing the Euro".  
  5. ^ a b "Wg raportu GMF Polacy coraz bardziej nie lubią USA, NATO, Obamy i Rosji". Wiadomości. 12 September 2012. Retrieved 2013-02-11. 
  6. ^ "Polish govt confirms euro plan despite hurdles". London:  
  7. ^ "Poland may get referendum on euro".  
  8. ^ "L. Kaczyński: najpierw referendum, potem euro". 2008-10-31. Retrieved 2015-08-26. 
  9. ^ "Poland may adopt euro before 2014-Deputy FinMin". Forbes. 10 July 2009. Retrieved 31 July 2010. 
  10. ^ "Kotecki Says Poland Has No Plan to Suspend Debt Rules".  
  11. ^ "Polish 2010 Gap Below 8% of GDP, Kotecki Tells Rzeczpospolita".  
  12. ^ http://www.tvp.info/informacje/biznes/euro-nie-w-2012-roku
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  14. ^ "Poland delays adoption of the Euro until 2015". MercoPress. 16 December 2009. Retrieved 22 December 2009. 
  15. ^ a b c Sobczyk, Marcin (5 June 2012). "Euro's Popularity Hits Record Low in Poland".  
  16. ^ Bloomberg Businessweek. 2 December 2011. Official: Poland to be ready for euro in 4 years
  17. ^ "Monetary policy guidelines for 2013 (print nr.764)" (PDF). The Monetary Policy Council of the Polish National Bank (page 9) (in Polish). Sejm. 27 September 2012. Retrieved 28 October 2012. 
  18. ^ "Constitution of the Republic of Poland of 2nd April 1997, as published in Dziennik Ustaw (Journal of Laws) No. 78, item 483". Parliament of the Republic of Poland. Retrieved 25 September 2009. 
  19. ^ "Polish charter must change before ERM-2". www.fxstreet.com. Retrieved 25 September 2008. 
  20. ^ "European Committee adopted the Strategic Framework NPWE".  
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  22. ^ Kawecka-Wyrzykowska, E. (2013). Poland’s Public Finance Convergence with the Euro Area. Central European Business Review, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 51-60. ISSN 1805-4862. Available online at: http://cebr.vse.cz/cebr/article/download/70/55
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  32. ^ "Nová polská vláda chce větší vojenskou přítomnost USA a rychlý přechod k euru (The new Polish government wants greater US military presence and a quick transition to the euro)" (in Czech). Hospodářské Noviny iHNed. 1 October 2014. 
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  41. ^ "TNS: 45 percent respondents in favor of the euro, 40 percent against (TNS OBOP: 45 proc. badanych za przyjęciem euro, 40 proc. przeciw)" (in Polish). Parkiet. 17 December 2013. 
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  44. ^ "TNS Polska: Odsetek osób oceniających wejście do euro za błąd wzrósł do 51 proc." (in Polish). Obserwator Finansowy. 25 September 2014. 
  45. ^ "TNS Poland: 49 percent for, 40 percent against the introduction of the euro in Poland (TNS Polska: 49 proc. za, 40 proc. przeciwko wprowadzeniu w Polsce euro)" (in Polish). Interia.pl. 21 December 2014. 
  46. ^ "Attitudes to adopt the euro without major changes, dominated by skeptics (Nastawienie do przyjęcia euro bez większych zmian, dominują sceptycy)" (in Polish). Bankier.pl. 25 March 2015. 
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  49. ^ http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/flash/fl_400_en.pdf
  50. ^ http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/flash/fl_418_en.pdf
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  52. ^ "The corrective arm".  
  53. ^ "Long-term interest rate statistics for EU Member States (monthly data for the average of the past year)". Eurostat. Retrieved 18 December 2012. 
  54. ^ "Government deficit/surplus data". Eurostat. 22 April 2013. Retrieved 22 April 2013. 
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  56. ^ "Euro/ECU exchange rates - annual data (average)". Eurostat. Retrieved 5 July 2014. 
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  59. ^ "Convergence Report - 2012" (PDF).  
  60. ^ a b "European economic forecast - spring 2012" (PDF). European Commission. 1 May 2012. Retrieved 1 September 2012. 
  61. ^ a b "Convergence Report" (PDF).  
  62. ^ "Convergence Report - 2013" (PDF).  
  63. ^ a b "European economic forecast - spring 2013" (PDF). European Commission. February 2013. Retrieved 4 July 2014. 
  64. ^ a b "Convergence Report" (PDF).  
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  66. ^ a b "European economic forecast - spring 2014" (PDF). European Commission. March 2014. Retrieved 5 July 2014. 
  67. ^ "Luxembourg Report prepared in accordance with Article 126(3) of the Treaty" (PDF). European Commission. 12 May 2010. Retrieved 18 November 2012. 
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